Mississippi State kicks off Jeff Lebby’s third season as head coach Saturday night against Louisiana-Monroe. The Bulldogs are favored at home by 28.5 points, with a total hanging around the fifties. Mississippi State, even this early on in the season, can likely dominate this matchup without making the Warhawks go score-for-score in the way the total asks. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the ULM Warhawks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Mississippi State vs. ULM prediction, preview
Because, I mean, ULM averaged only 16.6ppg and 324.8 yards/game last year’s 3-9 season. Its passing game only generated 164.6 yards/game, and the offense often stagnated. They converted only 33.6% of third downs. Their option-based rushing attack means the early downs are all the more important, and if they can’t be efficient there, they won’t sustain drives.
Quarterback Aidan Armenta returns, and Miami transfer Don Chaney Jr. adds much-needed high-level vision at running back. Their offensive assignment, likely, is simply to shorten the game and not turn the ball over. ULM cannot afford obvious passing situations against an SEC front seven. So many possessions for ULM should look conservative, trepidatious.
Mississippi State’s offense, on the other hand, averaged 30.4ppg and 404.2 yards/game last season in the SEC. Sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor now takes over full time after flashing the sort of dual-threat production programs salivate over. He threw five touchdowns against just one interception, but led the Bulldogs as a whole with eight rushing scores. He averaged 5.6 yards yards/carry over 82 season totes.
ULM vs. Mississippi State pick, best bet
ULM’s defense has always been the problem; they allowed 31.9 points per game and struggled to leave the field, permitting 44.9% third-down conversions. Mississippi State should score efficiently by testing that front with Taylor and its backs. But a mismatch that shows up mostly in the running game in Week 1 will keeps the clock moving. The Bulldogs need not expose their young QB starter to unnecessary volume, but they’ll want him to chick it around, for sure.
Mississippi State can create most of 55 points alone. ULM is 0-14 under Bryant Vincent when allowing more than 190 rushing yards. But I expect Lebby to shorten the second half after getting a ton of separation. ULM’s limited passing game should manage, maybe, one touchdown drive and perhaps two field goals.
Best bet: Under 54.5 (-108)
Projected score: Mississippi State 38, ULM 13
Best Bet: Mississippi State vs. ULM u54.5 total points (-110)
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