On Saturday’s full MLB schedule, the Cincinnati Reds host the Milwaukee Brewers in an NL Central clash that gets underway at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Brewers won the first game of this series on Friday, 10-7, and have beaten their division rivals in seven of their eight meetings this season. Even though the results have been one-sided, Saturday night’s contest should be an entertaining one at Great American Ball Park. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup and make a prediction as to how Saturday night’s matchup will play out.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Brewers are road favorites at -157 on the Moneyline to win outright and hold +104 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Reds have +130 odds of pulling off the upset and getting the win, while the run total is 9.0.
Brewers at Reds prediction, preview
The Brewers have the best record in baseball at 88-54, and they have won seven of their last 10 overall. They split a series to start the week in Chicago, scoring nine runs in back-to-back wins before being held to just one run on Thursday. They bounced back with 10 runs on Friday, though, and should be in a good spot to continue their offensive surge on Saturday night against Reds lefty Andrew Abbott.
Abbott is 6-10 on the year with a 4.49 ERA and 4.80 FIP. He has struggled more in his last five outings, though, going 1-4 with a 6.89 ERA and allowing 24 runs on 36 hits and 16 walks over those five games. He allowed at least three runs in each of those five contests, with a 10.3% barrel rate against him in those games.
The Brewers didn’t get much going against Abbott the only time they faced him this season, but they have scored the second-most runs in the MLB over the last 30 days with an average of 5.3 runs per game. They lead the MLB with a .272 team batting average over that span and have a 113 team wRC+, which is also the third highest in the MLB over the last month.
Jackson Chourio (3-for-8, 2 HR), William Contreras (6-for-20, 2B, HR), and Brice Turang (4-for-10, 3 2B) all have good numbers against Abbott in their careers, and they come in with good momentum as well. I highlighted Chourio as one of my top home run props to play this Saturday, and the Brew Crew started the series with 10 runs on 12 hits on Friday, including three hits for Turang and four RBI from rookie SS Cooper Pratt.
The Brewers will counter Abbott with starting pitcher Dustin May, who will be making his sixth start since joining the team at the MLB trade deadline from the Cardinals. May has had a streaky season overall and has allowed 14 runs in 19 2/3 innings since joining Milwaukee for a 6.41 ERA and 5.43 FIP. He was strong in his one game this season against the Reds, allowing just one run in six innings, but he has struggled with his command and giving up too much hard contact since joining the Brewers.
The Reds will hope to continue those struggles for May on Saturday night, and they come in with some good offensive momentum ov their own after scoring at least seven runs in each of their last two games and in five of their last eight. Young hitters Sal Stewart and Hector Rodriguez each have a pair of homers over the last week, while Eugenio Suarez, Elly De La Cruz and Dane Myers all have an OPS over 1.000 during that span.
In addition to the favorable matchups, the weather forecast for Saturday night also looks like a favorable one for the two offenses. While there could be some early rain, it’s expected to be around 85 degrees at the scheduled time for first pitch, with the wind blowing out to right field. The rain may cause a late start as it did on Friday, but once that game got underway, the offenses thrived in the conditions. Whether the game starts a little late or right on time, the hitting conditions should be close to ideal.
Brewers at Reds pick, best bet
With each starting pitcher in shaky form and both offenses playing well, my favorite pick and prediction for this matchup is the over in total runs. Last night, the teams combined for 17 runs, and the Reds have hit the over in six of their last eight games, while the Brewers have hit the over in seven of their last 10.
Best bet: Over 9 Total Runs (-114)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
