Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Week 1’s game between Auburn and Baylor.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Auburn vs. Baylor player props
Byrum Brown o66.5 total rushing yards (-110)
Auburn begins the Alex Golesh era in Atlanta, but this offense will not feel whatsoever new to quarterback Byrum Brown. Brown followed Golesh from USF, alongside five receivers and center Cole Best. They just took the whole bandwagon to Auburn. Golesh’s veer-and-shoot system treats Brown as a featured runner, and did so with great efficiency in south Florida. Brown tore off 175 carries for 1,008 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. He averaged 84.0 rushing yards/game.
The matchup and the hype both push me toward the over. Baylor ranked 121st in opponent-adjusted DVOA against QB runs. Last season, they allowed ~25% more yardage than FBS opponents normally produced. Even better for this ticket, Brown averaged 101.1 sack-adjusted rushing yards against FBS opponents. He’ll need to pass, sure, but the quick passing built into the scheme limits damaging negative plays.
Defensively, Baylor replaces most of its linebacker experience while installing new coordinator Joe Klanderman’s aggressive 3-3-5 defense. That scheme can generate sustained pressure well when it works, but its subborn dependence on blitzing also opens glaring escape lanes when defenders lose their assignments. Brown cleared 66.5 yards on the ground in seven of his final ten games in 2025. In order for Auburn to separate, Brown will have to be the key around the goal line and on option keepers in the middle-eighty. I would play 66.5 confidently and accept anything through 69.5.
Dawson Pendergrass u54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Dawson Pendergrass returns as Baylor’s RB1 after a costly foot surgery erased his entire 2025 season. His last full campaign produced 671 yards on 121 carries, a healthy 5.5-yard average. However, that amounted to only 51.6 rushing yards per game, already a decent carry below this prop. Baylor also’s improved their depth because of his 2025 absence: Caden Knighten is directly behind him and will rotate in plenty of times. As such, Baylor has little reason to overload Pendergrass immediately.
Auburn is just downright the wrong opponent re. a hopeful projection for heavy workload/volume, too, if you wanted to bet in the redemption-arc story. The Tigers allowed 99.3 rushing yards/game last season (10th in the nation), and allowed only 2.86 yards/carry. Linebacker Xavier Atkins is back once more to anchor DC DJ Durkin’s defense, so I doubt the unit will have lost any speed or any of its characteristic efficiency on second-level tackling.
Any kind of early Auburn dominance would obliterate Pendergrass’s utility as a hard-nosed rusher; Bayly would then have to beg former Gators QB DJ Lagway to convert long downs. Pendergrass may well still look explosive relative to his injury narrative and still finish well short of this line. Nine carries, for example, at his 2024 average produce only 50. I project a committee and roughly 10 attempts. Under.
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