Seattle’s season has slipped away despite an experienced (and expensive!) rotation, and a roster (which cost even more!) built for playoff runs, even though they’re not bound for October this year. The Athletics are about to labratory their way through September, and tonight that looks like Kade Morris on the mound. It’s (mostly; like, it at least leans toward being) a hitter’s park, and it’s anyone’s game. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Seattle Mariners and the Athletics.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Mariners vs. Athletics prediction, preview
In his small major-league sample size, Morris owns a bloated 9.82 ERA. He’s not striking out any lefties; only 5.1% faced. They also are hitting him hard: 50% HH rate and a 7.7% HR rate. His changeup should be unthrowable, but he still chucks it. Hitters have an a .840 xSLG and a 14% barrel rate against it.
Dominic Canzone will smash that changeup if Morris misses his location. On the season Canzone’s surprised us all with 21 homers, 23 doubles, and a .489 xSLG. To boot, over his last ten BIPs, he’s slashed a 60% HH rate and a 20% barrel rate; he’s in pure form. A 1.031 xSLG across that time, too. Cal Raleigh’s still raking since the PCA butt slap, having raised his barrel rate on the season to 14.5%. Morris won’t be looking forward to those lefty matchups.
Logan Gilbert is obviously the better starter, here, although I want to note the Athletics have the potential to punish his tendencies to make mistakes. Hitters are slashing a .540 xSLG against him. Righties clock an 11.8% barrel rate against him, too, and Gilbert’s four-seamer gets barreled 18% of the time by righties. Zack Gelof is your hottest A’s hitter, with three barrels in his last 10 BIPs, while Henry Bolte’s blasting lasers all over the field to the tune of a 101.0 mph over that same timespan.
Athletics vs. Mariners pick, best bet
The Athletics’ bullpen provides the largest obstacle to a Seattle victory against Morris. Those arms have suppressed contact altogether, keeping hitters to a a .428 xSLG and a 3.7% barrel rate. Seattle’s bullpen is much worse, having yielded a .594 xSLG, a 9.3% barrel rate, a 14.2% XBH rate. That group also threw 89 pitches Thursday, so they’re positioned for neither length nor dominance.
Yet another game tonight where I see too much avenue for scoring to go for a side. Morris, Seattle’s collapsing bullpen—both against a modest number, too. Seven runs is a push, as it stands. Too low.
Best bet: Over 7 runs (-120).
Projected score: Mariners 5, Athletics 3.
Best bet: Mariners vs. Athletics o7.0 total runs scored (-120)
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