The Cubs arrive in Miami off a so-so homestand, and their playoff seeding remains both uncomfortably uncertain and the sole focus of this team’s winning efforts, MVPete campaign aside. The Marlins are still surprising us this season, even now in September, mostly because they’re absolute dogs at home. We’ve got two pitch-to-contact starters, so bullpen timing/freshness and great defense will surely play a big part in the outcome. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Miami Marlins and the Chicago Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Marlins vs Cubs prediction, preview
Janson Junk has shoved a 4.11 ERA for the Marlins, but his Junk doesn’t yield many whiffs. He’s struck out just 17.5% of lefties and 13.6% of righties, which places the out-conversion rate of every inning squarely in Miami’s defense’s hands. Lefties have an .527 xSLG against Junk. Righties, on the other hand, barrel his sweeper at a 16% rate.
Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to evolve from supernova kid to a gargantuan, fanged, yawning black hole that’s consuming the whole baseball universe. His 39 homers (39th last night) and 27 doubles have clock in at a 48.6% HH rate, a 13.1% barrel rate, and insane 74.9mph average bat speed. His recent BIPs against Junk’s primary pitch arsenal have clocked in at 98.0mph EV, and produced four barrel events. Alex Bregman is, also, all the sudden the right-handed PCA—or is it vice versa?—and has skyrocketed his contact quality up to 92.2mph EV, a 50% HH rate, and a 20% barrel rate across his latest 10 balls in play.
Shota Imanaga is spinning out into an almost-undeployable meatballer. On the year, now, lefties—of which the Marlins have many powerful batsmen—have homered in 6.4% of their plate appearances against him, with a 13.4% barrel rate and a .607 xSLG. Righties sit at 5.0% and .529, respectively. Heriberto Hernández has homered five times since Aug. 20, and I like way Kyle Stowers and Otto Lopez square against Imanaga’s pitch mix, too. Those are the three fish I’d see most capable of doing heavy damage tonight.
Cubs vs. Marlins pick, best bet
Admittedly, Miami can steady and control the game once they pull Junk, so he might have a short leash. Marlins relievers have allowed a muted .461 xSLG on contact since Aug. 1, and loanDepot Park suppresses home runs omnidirectionally. Chicago’s bullpen remains its softest underbelly, and hitters have a .517 xSLG against it. Miami’s offense, which we know loves the late innings, looks positioned well for another surge there.
Having said that, the Cubs’ offense is just too good to bet on a Marlins win. I expect Chicago to do some damage against Junk before Miami’s bullpen can quiet the bats. But Shota’s recent form is just atrocious, and the Cubs’ bullpen is in shambles—we’re after scoring, of which I expect there to be plenty.
Best bet: Over 8 runs (−112).
Projected score: Cubs 5, Marlins 4.
Best bet: Marlins vs. Cubs o8.0 total runs scored (-110)
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