Washington’s season has been disappointing, confusing, and injury prone, and they kick off the first Friday in September by deploying another young starter into the maw of baseball’s deepest lineup. Having said that, the Dodgers are feeling the length of their success this summer, it appears—Shohei Ohtani’s banged up, and they still’ve got work to do in the standings before they can throttle down. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Washington Nationals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Nationals prediction, preview
Jackson Kent has the great displeasure of facing LA’s bats today. As mentioned, his major-league sample remains limited, but the underlying metrics should scare anyone when juxtaposed against the Dodgers. Righties slash a .531 xSLG against him, and he strikes them out only 16.4% of ABs. His four-seamer and changeup account for roughly 60% of his pitches. The changeup has allowed a .680 xSLG on contact.
Teoscar Hernández is your Dodger nuclear hitter of the week, currently. His latest 10 batted balls average 102.6mph EV, with eight hard hits and two barrels. Drill it down to Kent’s primary offerings, and that sample climbed to 104.9 mph and nine hard hits. Mookie Betts looks resurgent, too, and has an 94.8mph EV with 70% hard hits across his own last 10 batted balls.
Blake Snell begins this game with all the vectors pointing toward his snuffing out these Marlins. He’s struck out 31.4% of lefties and 33.8% of righties, while suppressing all hitters to .365 xSLG. James Wood, looking fresh back from his injury, has averaged 100.1mph EV across his latest 10 batted balls, but he’s not hitting the sweet spot yet. Snell’s swing-and-miss arsenal should play right into the Nationals’ tendencies to swing-and-miss against lefties.
Nationals vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
Late-gamewise, Washington’s bullpen has allowed a .517 xSLG since Aug. 1. The Dodgers, shockingly, have been considerably worse, with a bullpen staff allowing a .615 xSLG, a 10.6% barrel rate, and a 15.4% XBH rate across that timespan. Dodger Stadium, also, clocks in at a 132 right-handed homer factor. Forecast for tonight is warm air, and an eight-mph wind blowing out.
Snell should control Washington during the early innings, certainly. And maybe he’ll go deep. But something tells me the Dodgers may want to be careful with their aces, having already so much uncertainty with Ohtani. Jackson Kent and both relief groups leave a full bowling alley of lanes for scoring, here.
Best bet: Over 8.5 runs (-105).
Projected score: Dodgers 7, Nationals 2.
Best bet: Dodgers vs. Nationals o8.5 total runs scored (-105)
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