After a mid-August series win over the Guardians, it seemed like the Tigers were destined to make a run at a playoff spot, despite famously selling at this year’s deadline. That would make this four-game set something to look forward to on the schedule. Heck, it might even be the series that decided the Wild Card race in the AL. About that…
In the 18 contests since taking two of three from Cleveland, Detroit is just 4-14. Needless to say, it’s currently on the outside looking in for a postseason spot, sitting 5.5 games back of the Guardians entering Friday’s doubleheader. Woof.
Is there a miracle run left in the Tigers? Does it start today? Let’s dive into Game 1 of this American League Central clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tigers vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Logan Allen will get the spot start for the Guardians in Game 1, just his second of the season. In fact, after throwing 156.2 innings for last year’s Cleveland squad, Allen’s appeared in six games total in 2026, mostly as the “break glass in case of emergency” long man at the forgotten end of the bullpen. The left-hander has been fine in his 14.1 innings, pitching to a 3.77 ERA and striking out 15. However, Allen’s also surrendered a 10.9% opponent barrel rate, and therein lies the problem. Allen’s been home run prone in the past. It’s likely the exact reason he’s no longer in the Guardians’ rotation. From 2024 to 2025, among players with at least 250 innings thrown, Allen’s 4.95 FIP was the fourth-highest mark in baseball, trailing only Cal Quantrill, Tyler Anderson and Jake Irvin. Not exactly All-Star company.
On the other side of the pitching probables, we find Keider Montero. 2026 has been yet another campaign of the right-hander moving back and forth between the Tigers’ rotation and bullpen, yet it’s easily been his most successful season in the big leagues. Across 139.0 innings of work, Montero has maintained a 3.24 ERA and a 3.44 xERA despite generating a microscopic sixth percentile whiff rate (18.6%) and a ninth percentile strikeout rate (16.5%). In fact, the last time he saw the Guardians on August 13, Montero threw 6.1 scoreless innings without registering a single strikeout. It’s like he’s trying to single-handedly bring back the dead-ball era.
In a way, so is the Tigers’ lineup. At least in the past two weeks. Detroit can’t get anything going on the scoreboard in recent games, slashing .187/.264/.295 with a league-worst 55 wRC+ over the last 14 days. The good news is that Riley Greene is finally back off the IL from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for almost a month. The bad news? Greene’s 1-for-10 since returning, and that fits right in with the rest of the roster. Dillon Dingler hasn’t hit a home run since August 6, and he’s fallen out of the AL MVP race. Gleyber Torres hasn’t hot for power all season long. Even Kevin McGonigle is seemingly hitting a bit of a rookie wall. Things are bleak at the moment in Motown.
Tigers vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8 (-102)
The Tigers own a league-worst 55 wRC+ over the past two weeks, while the Guardians are in possession of baseball’s lowest ISO for the entirety of 2026 (.134). Even with the suspect Logan Allen on the mound for Cleveland, I’m just not sure where all these runs are coming from.
