When the Colts signed Keenan Allen, Josh Downs’ fantasy ceiling appeared to have lowered drastically. I, however, only moved Downs six spots in my official rankings after the signing, so high am I on Downs’ talent. He remains, for me, No. 83 overall against a 105.8 ADP as of this writing. A 23-pick discount, by my needle, is not that bad.
Before we get into the numbers: the contextual picture briefly became murkier when Downs missed consecutive preseason practices with a calf injury. The Colts then signed Keenan Allen, who was subsequently was arrested Aug. 30 for suspicion of driving under the influence. Downs has since returned to practice, and Indianapolis expects Allen to play Week 1 despite the ongoing legal situation. All signs point to Keenan’s full-go in Week 1, however.
Below, I breakdown why I still like Downs better.
Josh Downs fantasy outlook
Downs had a down year in 2025, but we can chalk it up to fewer opportunities/less volume. His efficiency never took a dip. His snap share, however, fell from 69% to 54%. Still, he drew 88 targets on 379 routes, good for a strong 0.23 targets per route. In that limited snap count, Downs also finished 26th in first downs per route, and 19th in separation/route-win score. Throughout the entire history of mankind, those sorts of under-the-hood efficiency metrics demand our regard much more than his modest 58-566-4 slash in 2025.
The concern, always, is the Colts’ run-heavy offense. Even in the passing game, Indianapolis’ heavy-personnel rate jumped from 24.8% to 35.6% last season. Eleven-personnel usage thus dropped from 74% in 2024 to 63%, and therein lay plenty of the snaps for which Downs remained on the sideline. In fact, Downs logged only 26 snaps in packages with multiple tight ends. His 7.49-yard average target depth isn’t that impressive, and will require a far more consistent deployment on the field in order to produce return on a ninth-/tenth-round investment.
Keenan Allen won’t go away, and that’s just fine, but we should consider him legitimate target competition. He commanded a 22.4% target share and 0.26 targets per route last season. However, he participated in only 65.8% of routes, 60.5% of which he aligned at the perimeter. Not to mention, he’s more underneath while Downs can still get over the top; Allen averaged just 6.3 yards per target across the past two seasons. He may take some targets from Downs, but Downs’ opportunities should be more value in terms of fantasy-point value.
Verdict: Draft Josh Downs!
Downs will never be a surefire WR1 in this receiving room. Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren look fine to play Week 1, and each have ironclad roles as key cogs in Indianapolis’ passing game, led by Daniel Jones.
All said, however, I expect WR2 output this year: a workload of around 90 to 100 targets, with 60+ catches, and usable weekly PPR volume. A repeat of last season would still see him him throw up flex numbers, and the market’s adjustment on his draft price since Keenan Allen’s signing seems to be anxiously considering that as a dramatic floor.
I remain euphorically-comfortable drafting Downs around pick 90; he’s an egregious steal after pick 100.
