Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s mini night slate: Cal Raleigh and Jackson Chourio.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh | +320 | In his last 45 plate appearances, Raleigh is slashing .308/.400/.897 with a .590 ISO and a 255 wRC+. These are the kind of loopy stats you can produce when seven of your last 12 hits have left the park. Then there’s Jack Perkins. The RHP owns a 7.60 ERA as a starter in 2026. He’s also surrendering 2.26 opponent home runs per nine in the role. |
| Jackson Chourio | +388 | Chourio’s been upping his power output in the year’s second-half. Over 193 plate appearances, Chourio is slashing .293/.363/.471 with eight home runs and a 128 wRC+. Now, he’ll get to face the reeling Kevin Gausman. The veteran is in possession of a 5.63 ERA since the beginning of June. He’s giving up 1.59 long balls per nine to opposing RHBs in this span. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Cal Raleigh 1+ Home Run (+320)
This might be a classic “too little, too late” scenario for the Mariners, but Cal Raleigh is red-hot at the dish since August 21. In his 45 plate appearances in this 11-game sample, the former MVP runner-up is slashing .308/.400/.897 with a .590 ISO and a 255 wRC+. These are the kind of loopy stats you can produce when seven of your last 12 hits have left the park. Backing Raleigh for a home run on Thursday night is pretty easy, especially when you factor in the matchup with Jack Perkins. Yes, a lot of the RHP’s woes are due to Sutter Health Park, but overall, Perkins owns a 7.60 ERA as a starter in 2026. He’s also surrendering 2.26 opponent home runs per nine in the role. It shouldn’t matter that much that this game is taking place in Seattle.
Jackson Chourio 1+ Home Run (+388)
It’s had been a bit of a quiet offensive season for the former top prospect heading into the All-Star break, but Chourio’s been upping the power output in the year’s second-half. Over 193 plate appearances, Chourio is slashing .293/.363/.471 with eight home runs and a 128 wRC+. If things keep trending in this direction, he’ll probably catch Jake Bauers (+418) for the team lead in dingers. Heck, why not do it tonight? Kevin Gausman is on the mound for the Cubs, and the veteran has been struggling significantly since the beginning of June. It’s a span where Gausman is in possession of a 5.63 ERA across his last 16 starts. It’s also a stretch where opposing RHBs are averaging 1.59 long balls per nine. Gausman and his elite splitter have often produced reserve splits, so it all makes sense.
