We are in full swing of fantasy football draft season with the NFL’s regular season kicking off next Wednesday. Striking gold with some late round picks always puts your fantasy team on a strong path and below, I have featured two of my favorite late-round targets.
Let’s break them down.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After some underwhelming seasons with the Eagles, Gainwell joined the Steelers last season and came alive. The veteran rushed for 537 yards and five touchdowns on 114 carries and he caught 73 passes for 486 yards and three touchdowns on 85 targets, all of which set career highs.
Gainwell didn’t miss a game and he generated 13.1 FPTS per game, despite playing behind Jaylen Warren. Gainwell was incredibly efficient, scoring 1.19 FPTS per touch and 0.43 FPTS per snap, both of which ranked top-10 among the running backs who played at least 25% of their team’s snaps.
Following this impressive campaign, Gainwell signed a two-year, $14 million deal with the Buccaneers. The back figures to operate behind Bucky Irving in this backfield, but Gainwell seeing 10-15 touches every week like he did with the Steelers is very likely after his big payday.
Plus, Irving is coming off a poor season. The back only appeared in 10 games due to foot and shoulder injuries, and Irving averaged a terrible 3.4 YPC, which ranked 62nd of the 65 backs who saw 50+ carries.
Irving’s injuries definitely were a factor, but the Buccaneers inking Gainwell to a lucrative deal certainly makes you question the team’s confidence in Irving. Gainwell should be a viable RB3/FLEX play all season in this situation and he is an awesome value with the back slipping to around the 10th round in most formats.
QB Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins
Willis was widely regarded as one of the top backups in the league last season and he now gets his first attempt at being a starting quarterback, after signing a three-year, $67.5 million deal with the Dolphins.
This is a pretty hefty payday for a quarterback that only has six career starts on his resume, but Willis really shined when given a chance last year with the Packers. Willis started once for the injured Jordan Love, facing the Ravens in Week 17 and in that start, Willis completed 18-of-21 passes for 288 yards, one touchdown and no picks, and he rushed nine times for nine yards and a pair touchdowns, resulting a massive 32.52 FPTS.
Willis only played 98 snaps last season – which is about two games worth of data – but he was extremely efficient, averaging 12.1 YPA and completing 85.7% of his passes, both of which easily ranked first among all the quarterbacks who dropped back 20+ times.
As a rusher, Willis averaged 5.6 YPC, which ranked ninth among the quarterbacks with 20+ carries. Notably, seven of Willis’ 22 carries gained 10+ yards and he rushed the ball on 22% of his snaps.
All in all, Willis produced an incredible 1.1 FPTS per dropback, which ranked first among the quarterbacks with 40+ dropbacks and it wasn’t even close. Ranking second was the mighty Josh Allen, who averaged 0.7 FPTS per dropback.
Obviously, this is a very limited sample and Willis maintaining this type of efficiency in a full season is impossible, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a great fantasy asset in Miami. Willis’ lack of pass catchers is a concern, as the Dolphins’ top receivers are Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas and Jalen Tolbert, but DeVon Achane remains at the helm and is a terrific pass catcher out of the backfield.
Regardless of Willis’ passing, his ability and willingness to run the ball will give him a strong floor every week. Even if Willis can be just an average passer to complement his rushing, he could average 18-20 FPTS per game.
Willis is falling to around the 10th round in most drafts and he is one of the best late-round gambles regardless of position.
