We’ve officially passed the end of August and are into September, meaning the MLB’s postseason race is coming down to the wire. In what’s clearly the best matchup of the Wednesday slate, the Milwaukee Brewers run it back against the Chicago Cubs as Jacob Misiorowski and David Peterson duel on the mound. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Brewers vs. Cubs game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Cubs prediction, preview
There’s almost no way the Cubs catch the Brewers in the standings, but both of these clubs are legitimate contenders in the NL. Chicago is 78-61 with a +136 run differential; Milwaukee is a league-best 86-53 with a +168 differential of its own. Neither club has been super hot lately with the Cubbies 4-6 over their last 10 games and the Brew Crew 6-4 over the same span, but that’s alright. For what it’s worth, they’ve split the first two games of this series as well.
Milwaukee, the visitors this evening, send out ace RHP Jacob Misiorowski (14-5). One of the leaders for the NL Cy Young, he brings a 1.73 ERA and 0.75 WHIP into this outing with 222 strikeouts over his 151.0 IP – all three major stats are the best of any qualified pitcher in the league. He’s been simply incredible, amassing a 38.9% K% with a 6.1% K%, a 110.6 mph average on his fastball, and a 3.6% barrel rate.
Chicago sends out LHP David Peterson (7-7), who has turned his season around since arriving with the Cubs after a trade from the New York Mets. Since joining this roster, he has a 3.90 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP with 46 strikeouts in 55.1 IP. His numbers on the full year aren’t great with a 19.6% K% and a 9.4% BB%, but he’s forced ground balls at an 87th-percentile clip and has clearly been better with a 4-1 record with the Cubs.
Over the season’s second half, both of these offenses have been clicking. The Cubs have scored more runs than any other club (262) and have an MLB-leading 75 homers, notably bashing nine in the opening game of this series alone. Their OPS over this sample is an MLB-best .829, also pacing the sport in wRC+. Against right-handed pitching, they slash .246/.335/.422 on the year with a .756 OPS.
The Brewers have also been quite good since the break, ranking eighth in runs scored (206), seventh in OPS (.745), and fourth in wRC+ over the second half. While the plate approach hasn’t regressed much with a 10.7% BB% and 22.6% K%, the BB/K ratio has come down slightly to 0.47, though Milwaukee is still sixth in wOBA (.329). The club also slashes .244/.328/.375 against left-handers this year for an OPS of .703.
Brewers vs. Cubs pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as a -162 Moneyline favorite on the road this evening, with the Cubs a +112 underdog at home. The total is set at 8.5 combined runs.
When Misiorowski is on the mound, you just can’t bet against the Brew Crew. While Chicago has some of the hottest bats in baseball right now, it’s much tougher to trust the group against such an ace – he blanked them in 6.0 innings with just three hits allowed and eight strikeouts back in May, then allowed only one earned run on two hits in 6.0 innings in June, striking out eight batters again. When the young fireballer throws, Milwaukee usually just needs a couple of runs to secure a win. For that reason, I’m taking the Brewers to cover the run line in this one.
