Tuesday’s 13-8 eruption was mystifying for several glorious reasons. First, St. Louis hit five home runs, including two from Thomas Saggese. Second, the combination of Jordan Walker, Ramón Urías and Joshua Baez also went deep. Eric Lauer, in total, surrendered seven runs in three innings for the Dodgers, and utterly detonated the matchup before Los Angeles could even settle into decent pitch counts on the offensive side. Now, the Dodgers still scored eight, led by Mookie Betts’ two doubles and four RBIs. And, most welcome: Will Smith returned after three months and drove in two. These are two hot lineups, but surely they can’t score 20+ runs again tonight—right? Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
Yoshinobu Yamamoto should do a lot to suppress the sort of runs Lauer gave up in droves last night. Even on a slightly down year for Yoshi’s pure dominance, he slashes at 12-8 with a 2.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 153 strikeouts across 158 innings. His August line helped make the SL stats look more like jewelry: a 1.95 ERA, 35 strikeouts, and only 20 hits across 32.1 innings. Over his last two starts, he surrendered just three earned runs and struck out 17 across 12.2 innings. He’s eviscerating. To boot: Yamamoto has completed at least six innings in seven consecutive home starts. Oh, and these very Cardinals have faced him twice—twice!—and failed to score at all across 11 innings.
Yamamoto’s broad six-pitch mix prevents hitters from getting at all comfortable in the box. His splitter is the tip of the spear at 26.8% usage, holding opponents to .179 and a .223 xwOBA. His four-seamer averages 96mph and slices through batters at a 30.1% strikeout rate. It does, however, have, underneath the hood, .466 expected slugging percentage. Misses over the plate have traveled far. Thus, Jordan Walker’s 28 home runs and Alec Burleson’s 100 RBI-savvy demand finesse in those spots. Yamamoto will answer with cutters, sinkers, and sliders—or just flood the zone with splitters—once either hitter gets ahead.
St. Louis can make it difficult and fractured early for the Dodgers’ lineup; it’s a planned bullpen game. Rotating fresh arms should let the Cardinals chase platoon advantages before Los Angeles sees anyone twice. Ryan Fernandez, Cade Winquest, and Gastelum each threw between 23 and 25 pitches Tuesday. Stanek, Soriano, and Riley O’Brien remained fresh. I’d look for most Dodger damage to be done during the innings of bulk relief from one of the aforementioned three available arms.
Cardinals vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
Los Angeles has scored three runs or fewer in five of Yamamoto’s last six home starts, so he could use a little more support. But the lineup looks like it’s clicking. Last night, Betts drove the baseball, Smith restored length, and the lineup generated eight runs despite playing from behind all night. The other side of the same coin in a bullpen game, I suppose, in this case, is that Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman will face multiple bullpen looks without a starter controlling the matchup. A mild breeze toward center will add carry to liners and fly-balls.
The moneyline at -258 asks too much, while the run line demands we pay for Yamamoto’s expected separation. St. Louis may script four clean innings. Covering nine against this order presents a different burden. Yamamoto should hold the Cardinals near two runs, giving Los Angeles several paths to margin. I would play -1.5 through -120 and leave the expensive moneyline alone.
Best bet: Dodgers -1.5 at -118.
Projected score: Dodgers 5, Cardinals 2.
Best bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-120) vs. Cardinals
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