For all their marquee might, the Yankees’ last five run totals are inconsistent at best, and not always in a bad way: 0, 9, 16, 1, and 7. Tuesday’s barrage did a little more to establish the reputation of the new Bronx Bombers: Spencer Jones reached four times, homered for a second straight night, stole a base and drove in three. Jazz Chisholm Jr. homered, had three hits, just like Cody Bellinger, who scored twice. No Judge, no Stanton. And still this lineup can turn over like that. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Angels and the New York Yankees.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Angels vs. Yankees prediction, preview
Cy Young-favorite Cam Schlittler should allow New York’s bats, however, to take a night off. He leads the American League with a 2.09 ERA and ranks second with 163.2 innings; he’ll be on the mound against this lineup for most of the night, I’d imagine. Over his last three starts, Schlittler allowed two earned runs and 12 hits across 17 innings. In that same timeframe, however, he’s issued 11 walks. Those are something to monitor, as I’m sure the Yankees will pull him before any cloggy traffic can do too much damage.
And, indeed, Schlittler’s fastball deployment looks vicious against this lineup. He throws four-seamers/sinkers 64.1% of the time, and averages 98mph on the gun with both. The four-seamer has held hitters to .183, with a 34.5% whiff rate. His sinker has yielded a .182 average and only a .259 slugging percentage. Los Angeles has the second-most strikeouts against right-handers and carries a .371 team slugging percentage. Zach Neto and Mike Trout can punish the high heater, but most of this order can’t catch up to the sort of premium velocity Schlittler slings.
Reid Detmers, however, gives the Angels an exciting counterpunch. His August was, quite simply, superb: a 1.50 ERA, 29 strikeouts, six walks, and a 0.97 WHIP. Sparkling. And, across his last three starts, Detmers only allowed one earned run in 20 innings. Better yet, he’s lined a 0.59 career ERA against New York through 15.1 innings. His slider is his killshot, and it’s limited hitters to .189, with a 35.3% whiff rate and 38% strikeout rate. The Yankees’ bats best shot comes against his four-seamer, which carries a .425 expected slugging percentage.
Yankees vs. Angels pick, best bet
That leaves the game balanced on starter length, way I see it. Detmers can quiet New York if he’s at his best through six, while Schlittler can choke off an even thinner Angels lineup for all nine innings, if it comes to that. Even so, the relief innings favor New York sharply, with a 3.06 bullpen ERA compared to Los Angeles’ 4.35. Saucedo, Peralta and Natera all worked for the Yanks on Tuesday, while David Bednar rested. Clear skies and a breeze toward right field add a modest boost to the easy-to-reach seats, which keeps betting the total a little risky, especially once Detmers exits.
Still, the market dropped this total from 7 to 6.5, and I think the move is justified. Even at that point, two hot starters and New York’s dominant bullpen leave enough room to breathe. The Angels’ relief corps creates the only risk, so I would stop buying in at −110. A total of 6 would be a pass for me.
Best bet: Under 6.5 at -107.
Projected score: Yankees 3, Angels 2.
Best bet: Yankees vs. Anges u6.5 total runs score (-105)
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