A sudden absence in the run-up to the NFL regular season is a time-honored tradition. This year, Josh Jacobs is the surprise absentee after being placed on the commissioner’s exempt list while being investigated for battery and criminal damage to property. While I don’t want to dismiss the seriousness of this situation out of hand, it does leave us with some fantasy football questions to answer, and we must answer them.
Let’s get into the Packers’ backfield to figure out who is the better fantasy option between MarShawn Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson.
Backfield Breakdown
First things first, we have to understand the stakes. The commissioner’s exempt list takes agency away from the Green Bay Packers; Jacobs can return to the roster only when the league decides he is ready, not a minute before. Jacobs’ stay may last as long as his legal troubles last, and in light of recent evidence, he appears to be in hot water. Recent commissioner’s exempt list stays have lasted between one and two months, but nothing prevents them from going longer. At the very least, Jacobs is going to miss a good chunk of the beginning of the season and may be absent for the entire year or longer.
That makes the decision between Lloyd and Johnson a very valuable one for fantasy purposes. Lloyd, for now, appears to be the clubhouse leader for touches. A third-round pick in 2024, Lloyd has some trust from GM Brian Gutekunst and head coach Matt LaFleur. But injuries have frayed that trust. Lloyd has played in one regular-season NFL game so far and has six carries to his name. A series of injuries, including an ankle sprain, calf sprain, hamstring strain, and emergency appendectomy, have combined to sideline him for 33 of 34 possible regular-season games. Hopefully these are a series of freak incidents, but it doesn’t inspire hope, though Lloyd is currently healthy.
Johnson is an intriguing addition by the Packers. A third-round pick last year out of Iowa, Johnson was a rookie-year disappointment for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He managed 28 carries for 69 yards across 10 games, failing to garner much of a role behind Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. After Rico Dowdle signed in Pittsburgh, it was clear that Johnson didn’t have much runway, and now he finds himself in Green Bay.
Though neither back has proved particularly effective at the NFL level, that’s not exactly relevant for our purposes. Someone has to get the lion’s share of touches here, and for an offense that was seventh in total rush attempts and tied for 11th in rushing touchdowns, that is a valuable fantasy position. Regardless of effectiveness, Matt LaFleur is going to run the ball; Green Bay’s paltry 4.1 yards per carry as a team in 2025 didn’t stop them from toting the rock.
For my money, Johnson is the better pick here. While he may not be the most talented, he’s a better bet to stay healthy than Lloyd, and availability is now the most valuable currency in Green Bay’s backfield. A plodding 15 carries per game and goal-line touches maintain FLEX value at a minimum, and perhaps RB2 value if Johnson can really get it going. That’s a whole lot of upside for a waiver claim. Lloyd is still worth a shot here, but you’d better be prepared for an injury to derail his value. I’d rather play the long game with Kaleb Johnson.
