We’ve officially passed the end of August and are into September, meaning the MLB’s postseason race is coming down to the wire. Two division leaders play one more time in Houston tonight as the Astros host the Chicago White Sox for the conclusion of this series, which the two clubs have split thus far. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s White Sox vs. Astros game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
White Sox vs. Astros prediction, preview
After last night’s win for Chicago, these clubs have now split the series at one game apiece. The White Sox are up to 73-65 with a +45 run differential, taking six of their last 10 games in hand. The Astros, however, are floating just above .500 at 70-69 with a -44 differential and have gone 5-5 over their last 10 outings.
RHP Davis Martin (9-6) is set to start for the Sox tonight. He has a 4.32 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP, plus 111 strikeouts across 125.0 IP. His K% is 20.9% with a 7.4% BB%. While he was highly effective over the season’s first half, his ERA has plummeted over six starts in the second half with an 8.03 mark and a 1.50 WHIP, so fatigue seems to be playing a role for him.
RHP Hayden Wesneski (4-1) gets the nod for the Stros. He carries a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his 32.2 IP since returning from Tommy John surgery. He’s also struck out 28 hitters for a 21.1% K% with a 9.0% BB%. His chase rate notably remains elite at 36.6%, so it’s clear the injury didn’t sap him of his stuff, too.
Both offenses are potent. The White Sox rank eighth in wRC+ over the second half with an OPS of .717 and the seventh-most runs scored. They continue to excel in terms of power with a .166 ISO, and their 52 homers rank ninth over this span. On the full season, they slash .237/.319/.403 with a .722 OPS against right-handers.
The Astros aren’t far behind in production over the second half. They sit 10th in wRC+ around the sport with a .714 OPS and a .162 ISO of their own, scoring the 10th-most runs over this same sample. They’re also 10th in homers with 51 since the All-Star break. On the year, they’re slashing .241/.317/.412 with a .729 OPS against right-handed pitching.
White Sox vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as a -142 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, while the White Sox are a +118 underdog on the road. The total is set at 8.5 combined runs.
Personally, I like Houston to eclipse its team total of 4.5 runs tonight. Martin is only just returning from a multi-week absence, and before hitting the IL, he was really struggling as mentioned earlier. He gave up three or more earned runs in five of his eight starts since July, with four outings of four-plus earned runs at that. I think he’ll be a little bit shaky this evening against a club that hits better against right-handers, especially given his poor average exit velocity and hard-hit rates allowed. Factor in that the Astros are marginally better at home with a hitter-friendly park, and it seems they could easily eclipse 4.5 runs.
