This is the biggest series of the season for both these teams. What a start to September, right?
Entering play on Tuesday, the Guardians are one game above .500 and nestled snuggly into the final Wild Card spot in the American League. However, a few clubs are hot on their heels, including the Blue Jays. In fact, after this weekend’s sweep of the Mariners, the reigning AL Champions are just 1.5 games back of Cleveland.
So, I repeat: This is the biggest series of the season for both these teams. Let’s dive into this crucial tilt in the standings and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Guardians prediction, preview
This is a very interesting time to be digging into Gavin Williams. On the whole, the right-hander has been the poster child of extremes in 2026. Let’s start with the good. Williams has the ability to strikeout anyone he faces. To wit, the former first-round pick’s 32.3% strikeout rate is the third-highest qualified mark in baseball, trailing only Cy Young candidates Jacob Misiorowski and Dylan Cease. However, unlike Misiorowski and Cease, when Williams does allow batted ball events, they tend to be very, very loud. Williams actually owns a first percentile opponent hard hit rate (47.6%) and a second percentile opponent barrel rate (12.0%), which makes performances like last week’s contest against the Angels easier to understand. Williams surrendered five earned runs in only 1.1 innings of work. It’s actually the second time in his last three outings that’s he’s given up five earned runs.
You know what else is interesting? This matchup between Williams and the Blue Jays. On the one hand, Toronto might not be equipped to exploit Williams’ weakness, as the club ranks dead-last in MLB in average exit velocity (87.5) and hard hit rate (34.0%), while also sitting second-from-the-bottom in barrel rate (5.9%). On the flip side of that coin, the Jays are one of three teams with a strikeout rate below 20%, so they might be among the best positioned to actually get the ball in play off Cleveland’s hard-throwing RHP. It’s just a one-game sample, and it was all the way back in April, but Toronto did manage seven hits and six earned runs off Williams the last time it faced him. Jesus Sanchez and Kaz Okamoto both hit home runs.
Finally, let’s talk about the Jays’ pitching plan. With so many starters on the IL, John Schneider has had to get creative more often than he’d probably like in 2026. Tuesday will again be one of those times. Spencer Arrighetti will almost assuredly work as a bulk option in this contest, but he’ll be working behind Spencer Miles, who will “start” for the sixth time in his rookie campaign. Miles owns a 2.92 ERA and a 2.81 FIP over 83.1 innings, and in a perfect world, he’d probably get through multiple innings this evening. Projections are less rosy with Arrighetti. While metrics like Stuff+ continue to love his arsenal, the raw data has been kind to the RHP in months. Since the beginning of June, Arrighetti owns an inflated 8.19 ERA over 11 appearances and two franchises.
Blue Jays vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-127)
These teams rank 29th and 30th in expected wOBA for the season. I get that. But, Spencer Arrighetti owns an 8.19 ERA dating back to June 1, while Gavin Williams has surrendered five earned runs twice in his past three starts. Williams also sports a first percentile opponent hard hit rate (47.6%).
Strong Lean: Steven Kwan 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI (-146)
Arrighetti has had far more trouble with LHBs than RHBs in 2026, and Kwan is slashing .376/.466/.433 with a 166 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Kwan has multiple hits in five of his last seven games.
