We’ve officially passed the end of August and are into September, meaning the MLB’s postseason race is coming down to the wire. Two NL Wild Card threats are set to square off again tonight when the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks clash at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Phillies vs. Diamondbacks game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
The Phillies turned their season around after a rough first couple of months, and beyond a slump or two, they haven’t looked back since. They’re 78-60 on the year with a +31 run differential and a four-game gap between themselves and the NL East lead, and they’re rolling lately as well; they’ve won five straight games, eight of their last 10, and are 24-17 over the second half of the season. The Diamondbacks took longer to round into form, but the story is somewhat similar for them as well. They’ve gone 24-19 since the break and are half a game shy of the NL Wild Card with a 73-66 record and a +4 differential.
There’s a nice pitcher battle on deck for this game here. Philadelphia starts LHP Jesus Luzardo (12-5), who’s in the midst of one of his best pro seasons. He has a 3.09 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with 203 strikeouts in just 163.0 IP. His 30.3% K% is elite with a solid 7.5% BB%, and the remainder of his Baseball Savant profile grades out in the red – he’s put forth a fantastic effort this year.
Another southpaw, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (14-4) is the man for Arizona in this one. His ERA is a low 2.50 with a 1.19 WHIP, but he doesn’t have much in the way of strikeout stuff – he’s cut down 119 batters for an 18.0% K%. His BB% is 7.9%, but what he does do well is limit exit velocity with a nice 81st-percentile hard-hit rate.
Both lineups have been good-to-great over the second half of the campaign. Philadelphia falls fifth in runs scored (201) and sixth in OPS (.745) with the eighth-best wRC+. The Phils’ ISO has come down a bit to .151, but they’ve made up for it with an excellent 10.0% BB% and 18.9% K%. The Diamondbacks have also been good at the dish over this sample, ranking third in runs scored (210) and OPS (.762), also sitting fourth in wRC+. Their own ISO has seen a jump to .166 while also maintaining a 9.6% BB% and an 18.3% K%.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Phillies as a -135 Moneyline favorite on the road this evening, with the Diamondbacks in play as a +112 underdog at home. The total is set at 7.5 combined runs.
The D-backs do notably excel against left-handed pitching, slashing .277/.343/.442 with a .785 OPS in the split. We’ll see an unstoppable force meet an immovable object against Luzardo here, but he’s been so darn good that it’s tough to see him getting shelled. He’s allowed more than two earned runs just twice since June 1 and has 46 strikeouts with a 1.31 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over the last month. The Phillies aren’t anything special against lefty arms and Rodriguez tends to go a little deeper into games himself. With that said, I’m taking the under on 7.5 combined runs as these southpaws battle it out on Tuesday.
