It’s easy to forget now, but the Saints were firmly in contention for the first overall pick of the 2026 Draft. New Orleans managed to win four of its final five games, finishing with a middling 6-11 record. That end of season hot streak was made possible in large part by quarterback Tyler Shough. The rookie impressed during nine starts, and now comes into this year as the team’s undisputed starter. That’s not the only reason for excitement; new running back Travis Etienne should give the Saints a serious boost out of the backfield.
Still, is all that enough to turn this middle of the road club into an NFC South contender? Will Shough take the leap from intriguing quarterback to franchise signal caller?
Below is my pick and prediction for New Orleans’ 2026-27 regular season, including a win total bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Saints win total pick for NFL regular season
It’s never wise to over simplify a futures bet. Still, New Orleans’ chances at flirtin with the division, let alone finishing above .500, likely come down to Tyler Shough. All things considered, the second-round pick lived up to the hype. Through 11 games (nine starts), he threw for 2,384 yards, ran for 186 more, and recorded 13 total touchdowns. Those numbers aren’t jaw-dropping, but a clear step up from backup QB Spencer Rattler. Even more important, the Louisville alum started in five of the team’s six wins.
Shough already possesses great chemistry with top wideout Chris Olave. The former Pro Bowler finished last season with 100 catches, 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns. Unfortunately, rookie Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) is estimated to miss an extended period of time. That means more opportunity for lesser known names such as Devaughn Vele and sixth-round rookie Barion Brown. Tyson’s injury could push head coach Kellen Moore towards a run-first approach on offense. New Orleans’ offseason moves seem to suggest a renewed commitment towards pounding the rock. In addition to the previously mentioned Etienne, former Bills guard David Edwards signed a four-year deal this offseason.
New Orleans’ defense lacks star power, especially compared to some other clubs in the NFC. With that being said, don’t let the lack of big names overshadow an above-average unit. Former Chargers head coach Brandon Staley is one of the league’s better defensive coordinators, and it showed last season. The team finished tenth in EPA per play, driven in large part by their work against the run. The Saints allowed 4.0 rush yards per attempt, seventh-best in the NFL. Defensive tackle Bryan Bresee (knee) is out for the year, but there’s enough depth up front to hold the fort. Plenty of pressure will be on edge rushers Carl Granderson and Chase Young; the duo combined for 16.0 sacks in 2026.
If there’s a major knock on the Saints, it’s that most of their wins came against the NFL’s worst squads. It’s not exactly wrong; that final stretch of the season saw them play the Panthers, Jets, Titans and Buccaneers twice. However, this year’s gauntlet isn’t the most intimidating either. According to winning percentage from 2025, New Orleans owns the second-easiest schedule in football this season. Early matchups with the Raiders, Falcons, Giants and Browns present an opportunity to finish the first half above .500. From there, who knows what the future holds for this group.
Best Bet: Saints over 7.5 wins (-120)
It’s fair to express some skepticism with the Saints, especially following Tyson’s injury. However, that feels a bit short-sighted. Etienne and Olave alone are among the NFL’s better weapons, giving Shough a pair of difference-makers on offense. On the other side of the ball, this defense should remain (at minimum) league average. That’s enough to contend in a weak NFC South division. Don’t be shocked if New Orleans sneaks its way into the playoff picture.
