In Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach—a lunatic messiah for the folks in Bear-Downtown—won 11 games, captured the NFC North, eliminated Green Bay in spectacular fashion, and pushed the Rams into overtime before gasping out of the 2025 campaign. All said and done, the 2026 win total number now asks whether the Bears can finish just a bit worse, at 10-7. And, indeed, the regression case glows in cyberpunk neon: a +22 turnover margin, seven one-score victories, and a modest +26 point differential bottom-line the metrics about which we should be most trepidatious. Also among them is that Chicago also finished 25th in defensive DVOA. I see how that confluence complicates the idea of another 11-win season.
Below, I break down how I intend to bet the Bears’ 2026 win total.
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Chicago Bears 2026-27 NFL win total odds
The Bears’ win total for the 2026/27 NFL regular season is set at over/under 9.5 wins, with the odds juiced to the under (.
Chicago Bears 2026-27 season prediction
Ben Johnson transformed the franchise’s offensive architecture and reputation within one season. Chicago allowed 68 sacks in 2024, and only 24 last year. The offense finished seventh in DVOA, generated +0.04 EPA per play, and scored 25.9 ppg. The Bears rushed for 2,456 yards at 4.9 YPC, good for third in rushing DVOA. They converted 42.7% of their third downs, accumulated 6,282 yards, and scored 49 touchdowns. We all watched their remarkable heroics, but the herculean moments actually did the sturdy machinery of a well-oiled offense a bit dirty. The Bears ended up looking a bit more lucky than their efficiency numbers would suggest, and we love that for an over look, here.
Caleb Williams, heroically speaking, was the coolest thing about this team last year, and the secondary reason I am comfortable betting above a demanding number (Ben Johnson being the first). His 58.1% completion rate and -3.5% CPOE are, admittedly, not whatsoever stellar. Neither is a finish of 20th in adjusted EPA per play. All the while, however, Williams threw for 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns against seven interceptions. He even added 388 yards and three scores on the ground. His pressure-to-sack rate plummeted to 10.8%, second-best in football, after his rookie season saw him buried in the turf 68 times for losses of yards. That gargantuan improvement came from better processing, pocket movement, and protection from a much-iproved offensive line. A second year inside Johnson’s offense should see Caleb gain some accuracy without sacrificing his sparkling 2025 1.2% interception rate.
Trading DJ Moore removed a marquee name from the receiver room, but his 2025 production was replaceable. Moore caught 50 passes for 682 yards and six touchdowns. Rome Odunze—whose “new normal,” speaking in terms of pediatry, has yet to be seen—produced 661 yards and six scores despite playing only 12 games. Luther Burden III is the fantasy football hype candidate of the year; in limited usage, he added 652 yards and a handful of scores. Second-year tight end Colston Loveland broke out as a rookie in the second half in a massive way; he led Chicago with 713 yards by the end of the season. Those three combined for 155 catches, 2,026 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Burden’s production from Week 10 onward translates to a 1,022-yard pace, and he also ended ’26 camp healthy after a minor groin issue. Williams thus retains three young targets capable of absolutely obliterating coverage, in an offense that should ascend in reliability and consistency. Buying in on the team’s win total, really, is buying in on the spectacle.
Chicago Bears win total pick
Drew Dalman’s offseason retirement, without proper correction, would have left a gaping offensive-line void. But Chicago moved quickly and acquired former Patriot Garrett Bradbury, who surrendered zero sacks across 642 pass block snaps during New England’s Super Bowl run. There’s depth, too: Second-round pick Logan Jones is another option, while Darnell Wright seems to be healthy again after his late-camp elbow scare. This line will almost certainly fall from first(!) in pass-block win rate and fifth in run-block win rate. Because of the Ben Johnson magic, the line’s structural integrity could decline considerably and remain good enough to preserve Williams’ growth. I don’t think it will, however.
The defense can regress in takeaways, but it needs to improve almost everywhere else—back to that +22 turnover differential. Chicago allowed 24.4 points and 373.8 yards per game despite collecting an NFL-high 33 takeaways. A 14.1% pressure rate repeatedly left the secondary gassed, defending extended plays too often. Rookie Dillon Thieneman adds range behind that rush. Devin Bush adds speed underneath, while Neville Gallimore and disruptive rookie Jordan van den Berg reinforce the interior. Trading Gervon Dexter costs six sacks, and Kyler Gordon begins the season unavailable. I hesitate to even bring up Coby Bryant, because his season-ending camp injury was absolutely devastating, and a major blow to a secondary that needed depth and range. As such, I still price this defense around 20th, which should suffice beside a top-eight offense.
The schedule owns the league’s highest opponent winning percentage at .550, although projected win totals grade it closer to seventh-hardest. That’s still a massive jump from their relatively cupcake draw last year. This year, Chicago gets Carolina, the Jets, Atlanta, New Orleans, Jacksonville, and Miami—all teams with win totals of 8.5 or lower. Even a 5-1 record through that group leaves just five victories demanded across the other 11 games. Six come within a division Chicago just won. Philadelphia, New England, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and Detroit must also visit Soldier Field and beat this team in their lair.
Chicago’s turnover fortune will inevitably cool. However, Williams’ development, Johnson’s offense, and the roster’s young core should outstrip most all other offenses grinding down a less-lucky Bears defense. I project 10 to 11 wins, and another legitimate division race. I’m all over this team hitting double-digits this year.
