Matthew Stafford entered the 2025 NFL season with plenty of questions, as he dealt with a back injury late in the summer that ultimately cost him most of training camp and nearly put him on the shelf for Week 1. Of course, he answered all of those questions convincingly, completing 65.0% of his passes for 4,707 yards, 46 passing touchdowns, and just eight interceptions, winning his first career MVP award at the age of 37 as the Los Angeles Rams advanced all the way to the NFC Championship Game. He was selected as the 23rd overall quarterback in 12-team PPR fantasy drafts last season and clearly outperformed that value, finishing as QB3.
This season, expectations are higher, as so far, he’s been selected 76th overall on average, the seventh-highest ADP among quarterbacks in 12-team PPR leagues. Fantasy users expect him to remain healthy and help lead the Rams to the most efficient offense in the league for the second straight season. It’s a remarkably high draft position for a quarterback of his ilk; because each rushing yard is worth 0.1 FPTS in most leagues and each passing yard only 0.04 FPTS, pocket passers who don’t present a challenge on the ground don’t typically warrant such confidence from the public. Stafford rushed for only one total yard last season; the only other quarterbacks who rushed for fewer than 100 yards last season who were drafted in the top 12 at the position were Joe Burrow (who’s been somewhat more productive on the ground in prior seasons) and Jared Goff.
Of course, there’s a reason expectations for Los Angeles’ offense are high. The Rams have two of the best wide receivers in the league in Puka Nacua — who posted by far Pro Football Focus’ highest grades last season and led the league in catches, first downs, and yards per game — and Davante Adams, who paced the NFL in touchdowns. Additionally, running back Kyren Williams is capable through the air, ranking 25th among 55 qualified halfbacks by PFF’s receiving grades, and Tyler Higbee — who had 560 yards in Los Angeles’ most recent championship season — should be healthy after playing just eight games. Last season, the Rams ranked first by run-blocking grades and 21st by pass-blocking grades, and although they didn’t make any further moves, they could be better after another season of developing chemistry. Stafford enjoyed the second-lowest sack percentage among qualified quarterbacks (and the second-lowest of his career) in 2025, and quick passes to Nacua and Adams should allow him to stay healthy again.
That’s not to mention Los Angeles’ defense. The Rams actually allowed opponents to attempt the eighth-most plays last season and merely limited them to the 15th-fewest yards per play, so despite having plenty of playmakers, Stafford’s ultra-efficient offense wasn’t on the field as often as it could’ve been. Los Angeles subsequently overhauled that side of the ball, trading Jared Verse for two-time DPOY Myles Garrett, swapping a first-round pick for Trent McDuffie, signing McDuffie’s ex-Kansas City Chiefs teammate Jaylen Watson, and luring three-time DPOY Aaron Donald out of retirement. As is, the Rams already forced turnovers at the league’s third-highest rate in 2025; their defensive additions certainly won’t hurt their ceiling, and they’ll likely raise the floor, giving Stafford’s offense good field position more often than not.
No quarterback is ever a sure thing, especially not a 38-year-old, but 2026 Stafford is about as close to a sure thing as possible. 2010, 2019, and 2022 aside, Stafford has had few major health problems in his career, and he has all the infrastructure around him to produce. Nacua ranked as among the league leaders in yards after catch over expectation last season, and Adams has been sure-handed throughout his career. Because he’s not a mobile threat, he doesn’t have the ceiling of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but as the ultimate high-floor play, his ADP of 72.4 is reasonable. If anything, this feels like an Aaron Rodgers-esque late-career resurgence, when he won back-to-back MVP’s in his age-37 and age-38 seasons.
