Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s full slate: Junior Caminero, Sal Stewart and Matt Olson.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | +278 | Junior Caminero is out here trying to ruin a Triple Crown campaign. After hitting his 36th and 37th home runs of the season this past weekend, Caminero is now tied with Yordan Alvarez for the American League lead. I don’t think he’ll be slowing down, either. The 23-year-old has a very nice matchup lined up on Tuesday in Sean Manaea. The lefty’s given up seven long balls in his past four starts, and for 2026 as a whole, he’s conceding a 12.4% opponent barrel rate in his 14 starts. |
| Sal Stewart | +369 | The combination of Randy Vasquez and Great American Ball Park is simply too alluring to ignore. Vasquez’s advanced statistical profile reads like a horror story. The 27-year-old is giving up first percentile average exit velocity (91.3) along with 10th percentile marks in both opponent barrel rate (10.2%) and opponent hard hit rate (43.9%). Meanwhile, Stewart has a home run in four of his last six games. |
| Matt Olson | +244 | Olson is tied for third in baseball at 37 home runs. He’s also in possession of a 97th percentile expected slugging percentage (.517). Now, let’s talk a little Jake Irvin, who surrendered more home runs last season than any other MLB pitcher (38). In the six starts he’s made since returning from the IL, Irvin’s allowed 2.10 opponent long balls per nine with a 10.0% barrel rate. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Junior Caminero 1+ Home Run (+278)
Junior Caminero is out here trying to ruin a Triple Crown campaign. After hitting his 36th and 37th home runs of the season this past weekend, Caminero is now tied with Yordan Alvarez for the American League lead. I don’t think he’ll be slowing down, either. Not only does Caminero use his 100th percentile bat speed (79.7) to produce 96th percentile average exit velocity (93.1) and a 93rd percentile expected slugging rate (.497); but the 23-year-old also has a very nice matchup lined up on Tuesday in the form of Sean Manaea. The lefty’s given up seven long balls in his past four starts, and for 2026 as a whole, Manaea is surrendering 1.69 home runs per nine as a starter. He’s conceding a 12.4% opponent barrel rate in his 14 starts, as well. That’s a massive red flag.
Sal Stewart 1+ Home Run (+369)
The combination of Randy Vasquez and Great American Ball Park is simply too alluring to ignore. While the RHP is technically only surrendering 1.10 opponent home runs per nine through the first five months of the season, Vasquez’s advanced statistical profile reads like a horror story. The 27-year-old is giving up first percentile average exit velocity (91.3) along with 10th percentile marks in both opponent barrel rate (10.2%) and opponent hard hit rate (43.9%). Woof. It’s a small miracle that Vasquez doesn’t concede multiple long balls every time he touches the rubber. Meanwhile, Stewart has a home run in four of his last six games. The NL Rookie of the Year hopeful is a dangerous bat, and he might just flirt with the 40 homer plateau before 2026 is over and done with.
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+244)
I probably don’t have to spend too much time selling you on Matt Olson, who is tied for third in baseball at 37 home runs with the aforementioned Caminero and Alvarez. He’s also in possession of a 97th percentile expected slugging percentage (.517). Olson’s very good at hitting the ball over the wall. So, instead, let’s talk a little Jake Irvin. You’ll probably remember that Irvin surrendered more home runs last season than any other MLB pitcher (38). Why isn’t he at the top of the list again in 2026? Well, he missed two months with an injury. However, since his return, Irvin’s right back to doing his usual thing. In the six starts he’s made since July 30, Irvin’s allowed 2.10 opponent long balls per nine with a 10.0% barrel rate. I’ll give the man this: He’s consistent.
