The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell short of the postseason last year for the first time since 2019. They finished with an 8-9 record, tied with both the Falcons and Panthers for the best record in the NFC South, but the head-to-head tiebreaker left them on the outside looking in on the playoff action. After winning the division four consecutive seasons before this, the Buccaneers will be eager to improve this year and get back to their expected standard. But the NFC South is expected to be competitive, with all four teams holding +400 odds or shorter to win on DraftKings Sportsbook, making it the only division in the NFL where this is the case.
Below is my pick and prediction for the Buccaneers’ 2026-27 regular season, including a win total bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026/27 NFL win total odds
The Buccaneers’ win total for the 2026/27 NFL regular season is set at over/under 8.5 wins on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tampa Bay holds -136 odds of the win total remaining under the line and +115 odds of going over.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026/27 season prediction
The most notable loss of the offseason for the Buccaneers was Mike Evans. The future Hall of Fame wide receiver has been a staple of the franchise for the past 12 years. Evans saw his streak of 11 consecutive seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards snapped last season after he was limited to just eight games due to injury. Last year’s 19th overall pick, Emeka Egbuka, showed promise in his rookie season and will look to improve his production further. Chris Godwin will be making his return from injury, while Jalen McMillan and Tez Johnson will also be asked to play significant roles. At running back, Rachaad White elected to leave in free agency, forcing Bucky Irving into the clear lead back role while Kenny Gainwell was brought in as a free agent as well.
A major storyline that has hung over Tampa Bay across training camp has been the looming contract outlook for Baker Mayfield. The former first overall pick has looked the part of a franchise quarterback since putting on a Buccaneers jersey and expects to be paid like one. He is entering the final year of his three-year, $100 million contract and has elected to pause negotiations to play out the deal. Mayfield put a self-imposed deadline of training camp for extension talks to be halted, and was unable to reach an agreement with the organization before this passed. Mayfield will be eager to play his best football and maximize his chances of securing his desired contract, but this storyline could also serve as a distraction.
There will be some expected changes in the play style, as Tampa Bay fired offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard following last year’s postseason absence. Zac Robinson has taken over this role after previously serving as the Falcons’ offensive coordinator across the past two seasons. Danny Smith also stepped in as the new special teams coordinator for the Buccaneers.
The biggest changes on this roster were evident on defense this offseason. Tampa Bay finished last season ranked 20th in opponent points allowed and 19th in total yards conceded. They also ranked 27th in passing yards allowed and 23rd in passing touchdowns given up. The organization also lost star linebacker Lavonte David after he elected to retire following his 14 years in the league.
The Buccaneers selected Rueben Bain Jr. with the 15th overall pick in the NFL Draft, who is expected to be an impact edge rusher from day one. They also selected LB Josiah Trotter in the second round and spent later-round picks on a cornerback and defensive tackle. In free agency, Alex Anzalone will likely be their most impactful addition. A five-year team captain with the Lions, Anzalone will likely be asked to quarterback the defensive side of the ball and brings a level of coverage skill the Buccaneers have not had at the linebacker position in quite some time. DT A’Shawn Robinson, EDGE Al-Quadin Muhammad, and S Miles Killebrew are also expected to play key roles. Vita Vea also had some frustrations over his contract with the organization leading into this season, which even led to a trade request from the star defensive talent. But the two sides worked out an agreement, and Vea will remain a foundational part of this Buccaneers team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers win total pick
It had been four years since the Buccaneers had failed to win the division and six since they last missed the playoffs. The organization clearly didn’t let that slide, and it made major changes this offseason. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is known for elevating a running game, and Bucky Irving has flashed as a talent, though his production hasn’t matched it so far. Expect a breakout season for the 24-year-old, with more touches expected in this new system and with less competition on the roster. This commitment to the running game should also help open the entire offense, which has become a bit too pass-dependent at times.
But expect Baker Mayfield to be committed to wearing his heart on his sleeve every game with his contractual uncertainty in mind. Mayfield has never been shy about showing his emotions or leaning on extra motivation, and that will be evident all season. It has been an impressive career revival in Tampa Bay for the two-time Pro Bowler. The Buccaneers have been one of the league’s most dynamic offenses with Mayfield at the helm, and he will be eager to get the team back to that form this season with the big-picture implications in mind. In addition, the Buccaneers boast a top-three ranked offensive line and several young wide receivers who appear poised to take a big step forward.
More questions remain about Tampa Bay’s defensive outlook. But the organization did its best to address needs and added some high-profile talent at key positions. The secondary could be problematic, but the Buccaneers should feel confident about generating a more consistent pass rush and winning in the trenches on this side of the ball. Tampa Bay also has the 12th-easiest strength of schedule, which should help their path to wins.
The NFC South is one of the NFL’s more unpredictable divisions this season. There is fair reason for optimism based on how the Saints finished last season, how Bryce Young showed progress with the Panthers, and whether the Falcons can get consistent, competent quarterback play; if so, they have a window to win the division as well. But this Buccaneers team has a production floor and expectation that none of these other teams do. With Mayfield as motivated as ever, some key additions to the overall roster, and some necessary shakeups on the coaching staff, expect the Buccaneers to burst out of the gates this season and win over 8.5 games.
Before last season, Tampa Bay had won nine or more regular season matchups in five straight years. They lost four of their last five games last season, each by four points or less, and six of their nine losses came by one possession or less overall. Expect a more focused effort in winning by the margins, and 8.5 wins should be a comfortable bar for the Buccaneers to clear as they return to their desired standard as a franchise.
