Mediocrity has been a consistent theme for the Atlanta Falcons in recent years. For the first time in a while, though, the team knocked the hiring of a head coach out of the park and could be positioned to turn things around. There are plenty of standout pieces on offense, but the quarterback and the defense do remain more uncertain when evaluating team success. Now, the question is whether Kevin Stefanski will live up to his status as a two-time Coach of the Year winner.
Here’s a look at the Falcons’ win total over/under for the 2026-27 NFL season with a top betting pick.
Atlanta Falcons 2026 win total, best bet
When the Falcons hired Kevin Stefanski as the franchise’s new head coach, there was plenty to be excited about. The two-time Coach of the Year kept the Cleveland Browns relevant for several years even despite operating with his hands tied at times, and he’s well-regarded as one of the NFL’s better names in terms of the coaching hierarchy. Giving him Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts had, and still has, many fans salivating. It’s tough to not get excited, but then you consider the rest of the context surrounding this team.
The quarterback play is a massive unknown. Incumbent starter Michael Penix Jr. didn’t live up to expectations in the pros before tearing his ACL again, so how he fares coming off the injury is anyone’s guess. The team signed former Miami Dolphin Tua Tagovailoa to compete for the starting job, but his limitations are known and his preseason performance was one for the ages – not in a good way, either. When some fans are clamoring for an UDFA like Jack Strand, it says a lot about the situation under center.
Then there’s the defense. Atlanta has been relatively pedestrian in that regard over the last few years, ranking 15th in yards per game (326.6) and 19th in points per game allowed (23.6) last season. While the Falcons’ pass rush was excellent with a franchise-record 57 sacks in 2025, two key EDGE talents are facing shortened campaigns – Jalon Walker tore an ACL and will miss the full season while James Pearce Jr. will serve an eight-game suspension to begin 2026.
The club signed help in the front seven, adding Za’Darius Smith, Christian Harris and Samson Ebukam at linebacker while trading for defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Jr.; losing a combined 16 sacks between Walker and Pearce is tough, though. On the back end, A.J. Terrell and Jessie Bates reprise their roles as the top to players in the secondary. Drafting Avieon Terrell, the brother of A.J., also brings a high-upside pick into the mix. There’s room for this unit to improve this year, especially with Stefanski in the mix and Jeff Ulbrich retained at defensive coordinator. They’ll just have to prove it while overcoming the loss of Walker and weathering the storm of Pearce’s suspension.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Falcons’ over/under total at 7.5 wins, with the under favored at -140 odds and the over at +120.
Atlanta does see the benefit of playing in a weak NFC South, so that’s a bit of a boost in terms of the win total. No team in this division was above .500 last season, with all three of the Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Falcons finishing 8-9. The New Orleans Saints also went 6-11 last year. There’s not a strong case for improvement from Carolina, but it’s fairly easy to see a world where both Tampa Bay and New Orleans wind up with a winning record.
Due to that weak division, the Falcons do have the fourth-easiest schedule in 2026 based on opponents’ 2025 winning percentage (0.465). That certainly sets the team up to play competitive football, but the question is twofold – can they trust either of these quarterbacks, and can the defense stay afloat without two of its top talents on the edge.
Those tasks may be easier said than done. Assuming the Saints and Bucs get back to winning games in the NFC South, the Falcons should stay under this win total of 7.5 in 2026.
NFL Pick: ATL Falcons under 7.5 wins (-140)
