Miami’s incredible six-run ninth Sunday afternoon erupted from two hits, four free baserunners, an error, and a double steal. That inning captured the exact pressure Will Dion faces in his first start for Washington on Monday. The Marlins have generated an 11.9% walk rate and stolen 16 bases in 17 attempts across 12 games. That chaos has somehow yielded 44 runs, despite an otherwise slumping lineup: in total, a .222 BA, .325 SLG%, and microscopic .103 ISO across the same twelve-game span. They’re swimming weird, man. Washington, meanwhile, has slugged .357 while averaging 3.85 runs across 13 games, so it’s not like they’re exactly searing the top off the ball. Its lineup, however, offers considerably more isolated power top-to-bottom. Would that it clicked! Even if it did, their bullpen keeps making things too volcanically interesting. A note to that point: Washington has played 16 consecutive days. Sunday’s collapse further discouraged a relief staff already carrying 35 blown saves. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Washington Nationals the Miami Marlins.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Nationals vs. Marlins prediction, preview
Ryan Gusto’s August results deserve your respect and interrogation in equal measure. Miami has won four of his five starts, but he has posted a 1.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP during that time. He’s walked only five across 24⅓ innings, and he’s a guy who relies on his command to outrun any sort of extraordinary swing-and-miss ability. His 7.03 K/9 offers few clean exits once traffic starts clogging basepaths. Which is to say, underneath the hood, Gusto’s just okay: 4.49 xERA, with a .269 xBA, .421 xSLG, and .326 xwOBA allowed. His seven-pitch mix does create unusual flexibility, yet not a single one of those pitches overwhelms hitters. The four-seamer has surrendered a 52.1% hard-hit rate and .452 xSLG. His sinker has allowed a .615 slugging percentage. Gusto has survived through control and soft contact, nothing more.
Of course, Washington’s best hitters can test that survival. James Wood is back, and carries a season-long production profile of 150 wRC+. His .583 xSLG and .418 xwOBA establish the barrel authority behind those results, although a 28.6% strikeout rate always leaves an escape hatch, especially after an injury, and even against a pitcher who strikes out so few as Gusto. Andrés Chaparro, meanwhile has become a far harder hitter to solve than he was earlier this year. He owns a 1.089 OPS since the All-Star break and a 1.144 OPS against righties in that time. Daylen Lile, too, has hit .320/.386/.600 across his last 57 plate appearances—exactly what Washington was hoping for, and exactly what they need now. In aggregate, Washington’s current hitters have batted .310 against Gusto in 32 plate appearances. Their modest .315 xwOBA reflects the weak contact beneath those hits, though. Gusto escaped them once on Aug. 21; I’m not sure he can do it again.
On the bump for the home team is Will Dion, who makes his first major-league start after 18 relief appearances. Dion has recorded a 3.67 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 3.14 xERA, and 23.0% strikeout-minus-walk rate across 34⅓ innings. His 91.2 mph four-seamer carries 20.1 inches of induced vertical break, so it’s an impressive enough weapon to do damage. His changeup, too, has generated a 42.3% whiff rate and .254 xSLG. Those two pitches have made right-handed hitters wildly uncomfortable, having held them to a .627 OPS. The secondary pitches—curveball and cutter—become nothing more than meatballs whenever Dion loses his four-seamer or changeup, however: xBAA for them both are .364 and .441. Dion threw 56 pitches five days ago, and should face a 65-to-75-pitch ceiling tonight. Washington will need substantial bullpen heroics even if Dion blanks the Fish.
Marlins vs. Nationals pick, best bet
Heriberto Hernandez has been popping recently, with 22 homers, a .488 xSLG, and .351 xwOBA on the season. Otto Lopez is back to making cleaner contact, with a .305 average, .282 xBA, and .421 xSLG. Miami has only a .693 OPS against lefties this season, and a .640 mark during August. Dion can handle these hitters for four innings. We’re banking on Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine, and the rest of the Miami boys to look at each other and say Now we go once Washington must find 12-to-15 outs elsewhere.
Because it’s back to that pesky bullpen again. The Nationals relievers own a 4.94 ERA and a 1.36 HR/9. That’s juicy! Among the premier disappointments: Max Kranick has a 7.41 ERA since returning, while Tom Cosgrove carries a 7.71 ERA and 5.22 FIP. Miami’s bullpen counters with a 3.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 9.03 K/9; their staff threw four scoreless on Sunday. The forecasted warm air should help or at least play neutral for both offenses, although the intermittent rain in the projections has me feeling like the already-juiced over odds are too rich for me. And, really, Miami’s proven production profile of recent frisky basepath traffic—OBP and stolen-base chaos, really—fit Washington’s August underbelly perfectly. We are, indeed, banking on another late-game schooling from the fish. Thus, I want the full-game wager, because Dion may win his chess match before Washington eventually goes on to blow the game, like they’ve done all August.
Best bet: Marlins moneyline (-109).
Projected score: Marlins 5, Nationals 4.
Best bet: Marlins (-110) at Nationals
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