Helping to close down Monday’s 12-game MLB slate, the Philadelphia Phillies will open up a series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
This is the second series between these two National League opponents this season. They last faced off at the start of April in Philadelphia, in which the Diamondbacks won two of the three games.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Phillies enter as -116 favorites and hold +134 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks hold +108 odds to win outright, with the run total set at 8.5.
Phillies at Diamondbacks prediction, preview
The Philadelphia Phillies hold a 77-60 record on the season, which slots them in second place in the National League East. They trail the Braves by five games in the division and hold a 4.5-game lead over this Diamondbacks team in the Wild Card race. Philadelphia enters this matchup after completing a sweep against the Angels, and it has won 13 of its past 15 games. On the season overall, the Phillies have gone 57-80 to the run line, and the run total is 62-67-8 to the over/under.
Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies tonight, marking his 28th start of the season. The 33-year-old has had an up-and-down season, and he enters with a 5-10 record, a 5.03 ERA, a 1.399 WHIP, 32 home runs allowed and 153 strikeouts tallied across 143.0 innings pitched. While limiting home runs remains a work in progress, Nola has shown some signs of getting on the right track of late, with a 2.60 ERA across his past six starts. The former All-Star has faced off with this Diamondbacks roster in 120 total at-bats in his career, allowing 29 hits and recording 22 strikeouts in these opportunities, along with a .628 OPS.
Looking at the production at the plate, the Phillies are slashing a collective .243/.314/.402 with a .716 OPS. They rank 17th in the league in hits, 13th in total runs, 11th in home runs and 15th in strikeouts tallied. Trea Turner leads the team with 132 hits on the season, along with 17 home runs and 51 RBIs. Brandon Marsh and Bryce Harper each add 128 hits, with 44 combined home runs and 135 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber leads all of baseball with 40 home runs, while Alec Bohm, Luis Arraez and Bryson Stott are also playing key roles.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are off to a 73-65 start to the season, which slots them in second place in the National League West. They currently hold possession of the final Wild Card seed, holding a half-game advantage over the Padres while being 4.5 games back from the Phillies and Cubs. Arizona has won four of its past six games entering tonight’s series opener. On the season overall, the Diamondbacks have gone 75-63 to the run line, and the run total is 60-72-6 to the over/under.
Brandon Pfaadt will get the start for Arizona tonight, marking his 25th appearance and 15th start of the season. The 27-year-old enters with a 7-1 record, a 3.51 ERA, a 1.143 WHIP, 12 home runs allowed and 72 strikeouts tallied across 105.0 innings pitched. Pfaadt has allowed nine earned runs across his past two starts, but he had four scoreless outings before this and a 2.03 ERA across this stretch. He has faced off with this Phillies lineup in 101 at-bats in his career, allowing 32 hits while notching 26 strikeouts, along with a .919 OPS.
The Diamondbacks are posting overall slash lines of .244/.316/.398 with a .714 OPS on the season. Arizona ranks 15th in the league in hits, 11th in total runs, 26th in home runs and it has tallied the third-fewest strikeouts in the MLB. Geraldo Perdomo and Corbin Carroll are tied for a team-high 122 hits, along with 28 combined home runs and 108 RBIs. Ketel Marte is expected to make his return tonight following a knee injury and some strange circumstances with the team. Marte has 117 hits, 21 home runs and 67 RBIs on the season, widely recognized as one of the best players in Diamondbacks history, but there will be some extra attention on him tonight. Gabriel Moreno, Nolan Arenado and Ildemaro Vargas also play major roles.
Phillies at Diamondbacks pick, best bet
This is an important series in the Wild Card race as Arizona attempts to catch the Phillies, and it has a chance to make up three games during this series. But don’t expect this to come easy, with the Phillies in strong form of late with 13 wins across their past 15.
Aaron Nola has been an innings-eater throughout his career and settled back in following a tough start to the season. He is posting a 2.60 ERA across his past six starts, and his fastball is back to its usual level of bite. Nola has limited the Diamondbacks to respectable slash lines of .242/.278/.350 with a .628 OPS in his career.
In contrast, the Phillies are posting slash lines of .317/.355/.564 with a .919 OPS across 101 at-bats against Brandon Pfaadt. This includes Luis Arraez, Alex Bohm, J.T. Realmuto and Justin Crawford each posting an OPS of 1.000 or greater and five total home runs launched across these opportunities. Pfaadt is also coming off back-to-back starts in which he struggled, allowing nine earned runs and 13 hits in his past two starts. He also gave up four runs on five hits during his start against the Phillies in the early stages of this year.
While Marte is the headline story looming over the franchise, there is a strange vibe surrounding this Diamondbacks team as of late. There are a few more distractions than are ideally the case given the importance of this series, especially given the current form the Phillies are in. There has been a collective adjustment in the team’s plate approach in which it has become less reliant on home run power and more willing to play small-ball. It has seen offensive improvement across the board since this collective shift occurred and expect this to carry into tonight’s matchup.
Expect Nola to continue on his redemption tour as his metrics creep back toward their expected output, while the Phillies build off the level of success they have shown against Pfaadt. Count on Philadelphia taking an early lead and for its bullpen to continue showing its improvement and hold down the lead from there. The Phillies have plenty of momentum and back them to pick up the series-opening victory by notching their 14th win in their past 16.
Best bet: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-116)
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