Taking place in the early portion of today’s 12-game MLB slate, the New York Mets will open up a series with the Tampa Bay Rays. This is the first meeting of the season between these two sides, who hold very different outlooks for the remainder of the season.
Looking at the odds, the Rays enter as -169 favorites to win outright and hold +123 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mets hold +157 odds of producing the upset, and the run total is set at eight.
Mets at Rays prediction, preview
The New York Mets enter with a 61-76 record on the season, which slots them in last place in the National League East. They have slipped to 11.5 games back of the final Wild Card seed after making up some ground over the previous few weeks. New York enters having dropped two of three games at the hands of the Astros and has lost four of their previous five. On the season overall, the Mets have gone 62-75 to the run line, and the run total is 60-65-12 to the over/under.
Robert Stock will be taking the mound for New York tonight, marking just his sixth start of the season. The 36-year-old has thrown just 20.2 innings this season and is posting an 0-3 record, a 7.40 ERA, a 1.935 WHIP, 13 walks, and 21 strikeouts tallied. He has thrown just 96.0 innings at the MLB level in his career and just 23.1 since 2021. Stock allowed seven runs on 10 hits in just four innings of work in his previous start against the Brewers.
The Mets’ offense is posting collective slash lines of .236/.306/.389 with a .694 OPS. New York ranks 23rd in the MLB in hits, 24th in runs, 10th in home runs and 13th in strikeouts. Bo Bichette leads the team with 140 hits, 14 home runs and 66 RBI, while Carson Benge adds 137 hits of his own, along with 16 home runs and 54 RBI. No other member of the Mets’ offense has more than 90 hits, with Marcus Semien next in this category. Juan Soto leads the team with 22 home runs and a .950 OPS despite missing significant time with his calf issue, while Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor and A.J. Ewing each also play important roles.
The Tampa Bay Rays hold the second-best record in baseball at 82-54 on the season, trailing only the Milwaukee Brewers. They hold a 4.5-game advantage for the top spot in the AL East over the Yankees. Tampa Bay enters this matchup following a sweep of the Padres, and has won six of their past seven games overall. On the season, the Rays have gone 75-61 to the run line, and the run total is 62-69-5 to the over/under.
Ian Seymour will be getting the start for the Rays today, marking his 12th start and 42nd overall appearance. The left-hander enters with a 9-5 record, a 4.21 ERA, a 1.150 WHIP, 19 home runs allowed and 128 strikeouts tallied across 107.0 innings pitched. Looking just at his numbers as a starter, Seymour is posting a 4.53 ERA and 1.181 WHIP across 51.2 innings pitched.
The Rays are slashing a collective .260/.329/.404 with a .733 OPS on the season. Tampa Bay ranks third in the MLB in hits, 15th in runs, 22nd in home runs, and it has the fewest strikeouts in the league. Yandy Díaz leads the American League with 157 hits, along with 20 home runs and 75 RBI. Chandler Simpson adds 148 hits of his own, while Junior Caminero has 146 hits, an AL-best 37 home runs, and 87 RBI on the year. Jonathan Aranda adds 140 hits of his own, while Cedric Mullins, Nick Fortes and Taylor Walls also play notable roles.
Mets at Rays pick, best bet
These are two teams trending in opposite directions, and expect this to be put on full display tonight. Tampa Bay enters this matchup on a four game winning streak, and are 46-23 when playing at home this season. They also have won eight consecutive home games against the Mets and covered the run line in 12 of their last 13 night games against NL East opponents with a losing record.
In contrast, the Mets have lost four of their previous five games and are just 29-37 when playing on the road this season. New York has conceded 6+ runs in three of their past four losses, and it is difficult to have much confidence in Robert Stock to put a stop to this. The 36-year-old has less than 100 MLB innings of experience in his career, and is posting a 7.40 ERA this season. He has allowed seven, one, zero, and eight earned runs across his past four starts.
Stock’s previous start was most concerning, as the Brewers lit him up for 10 hits and seven runs in just four innings of work. The Rays offer a similar profile at the plate to the Brewers, in which they embrace a contact-first approach and do a nice job limiting strikeouts. Expect this to remain a priority tonight and for Tampa Bay to consistently load the base paths and open the door for some crooked numbers to be put on the board.
The Mets showed some signs of life over the past few weeks, but have regressed to the team they showed to be for most of the year of late. Expect Tampa Bay to continue their quest for the best record in the MLB and continue fending off the Yankees on their tail in the divisional race. Count on the Rays to have success putting runs on the board against Stock and for this to pave the way to a comfortable win tonight.
Best bet: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+123)
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