It’s officially fantasy football draft season, which means every manager is looking for an edge once they’re on the clock. The quarterback position has been devalued over the last decade, and honestly, perhaps the pendulum has swung a little too much.
However, there’s a real case for waiting until the middle-to-late rounds when it comes to drafting your field general, especially when it comes to traditional 1QB leagues. If you’re planning to wait it out on a quarterback, there’s one name who stands out above the rest – Trevor Lawrence.
Is there reason to believe the Jacksonville Jaguars star is still being overlooked on the heels of a career-best campaign? Absolutely, which makes him one of the best value picks in fantasy football this season.
Is Trevor Lawrence the best value QB in fantasy football?
For a few years there, it felt like Trevor Lawrence may never live up to the hype he brought with him into the NFL. The No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Clemson product had immense pedigree after winning a championship in college. Yes, Lawrence’s counting stats weren’t bad by any means, and the Jaguars did make the postseason once in his first few years. However, what it took to truly unlock his game was a new coach, a new scheme, and some real weapons.
Head coach Liam Coen’s arrival in Jacksonville last season was reason to feel bullish as the offensive mastermind looked to revamp the franchise’s approach. The first half of the campaign didn’t spark a ton of confidence, but a second-half turnaround showed exactly what the Jaguars – and Lawrence – could do once things gelled. Following a Week 8 bye, the offense produced a whopping 32.8 PPG and broke out as one of the NFL’s elite offenses, ranking top-five in scoring production down the stretch as they finished 13-4 on the year.
Prior to the bye, Lawrence averaged a 58.7% completion rate and 231.4 passing yards per game with nine touchdowns and five interceptions across seven appearances. Coming out of the bye, the quarterback bumped those numbers to a 62.8% completion rate, 238.7 passing yards per game, 20 touchdowns and seven picks. The uptick in yardage may not sound particularly impressive, but his TD% spiked from 3.5% to 6.6% once the offense began to find its footing.
As for fantasy, the difference appears more drastic. Over the final 10 games, Lawrence posted 20+ fantasy points seven times, earning a top-12 weekly finish at the position in eight contests. That marked a significant change from before the bye, a period in which he reached 20+ points just twice with only two top-12 finishes in seven chances. The per-game difference between those stretches? Prior to the bye, Lawrence averaged 16.73 FPPG, which would’ve placed him as the QB19 on a per-game basis. After the bye week, his average spiked to 23.31 FPPG – he would’ve led all quarterbacks in per-game production if extrapolated to the full season.
So, what led to this explosion? There are a couple of factors at play, most of which are replicable. First and foremost, the numbers suggest the entire Jacksonville offense simply needed time to adjust under Coen and the new coaching staff. Prior to the bye week, the Jaguars averaged only 20.86 PPG and didn’t totally click. It’s clear they needed time to get comfortable with a new system, especially under a regime that brought more stability to the franchise than seen under previous staffs. That’s especially true with how meticulous and detail-oriented Cohen seems to be.
Part two of Lawrence’s breakout is perhaps the most obvious, and it’s the aspect that gets flagged most frequently in his statistical profile. The quarterback tallied a whopping nine rushing touchdowns on the year, more than any other player at the position not named Josh Allen (14) and tied with Jaxson Dart for second most among passers. Those nine rushing scores were also more than all but 11 actual halfbacks, so one can argue this was outlier production from Lawrence.
It’s true he may not replicate that same career-high output on the ground – seven of Lawrence’s rushing touchdowns came during that 10-game stretch following the bye, helping spike his fantasy production. However, he’s averaged at least 20 rushing yards per game in two seasons and came up just shy with 19.6 yards per game in another, and he also tends to get into the end zone at least a few times. Even if he doesn’t, though, there’s still reason to believe he can make up for a drop in rushing scores with an uptick in passing production.
Coen likes to run the ball, but Jacksonville’s pass rate last season of 55.36% ranked 19th in the NFL and Lawrence averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game. There’s volume to put up big numbers here, especially given the core of weapons he’ll be throwing to. The surrounding talent is the third and final piece of the puzzle for another huge season from the quarterback.
While Brian Thomas Jr. is coming off one of the most severe sophomore slumps in recent memory, he was a historic-level rookie whose poor second year can mostly be explained by injury. The hype train has fully taken off for Parker Washington, who doesn’t carry much pedigree as a sixth-round pick but broke out down the stretch last season as a target earner with 113.5 receiving yards per game and three touchdowns across his final four contests. Midseason acquisition Jakobi Meyers is still flying under the radar in fantasy, while Brenton Strange is an important part of the offensive puzzle for this roster as well. That’s without mentioning Travis Hunter, who seems on track to play much more cornerback than wideout but could still see some work on that side of the ball.
It’s not a star-studded room of receiving weapons, but each name has proven capable in the past and appears set to handle a clear role that makes this operation work. What the Jaguars lack in All-Pros, they make up for in depth – which is why a campaign of 30-35 touchdown passes for Lawrence could easily be in the cards. His previous career-high of 29 was set just last season, so with the added comfort of a full year in Coen’s offense, he’s positioned to make the most of his opportunities.
If this attack looks good from the start, Lawrence can easily pay off on his ADP in the middle-to-later rounds of fantasy football drafts and repeat as one of the top quarterbacks in the league. He’s a favorite target of mine and should be on the board for any manager looking to stack up on skill positions and snag a quarterback later on.
