The National League Central reaches Wrigley on the brink of September with one final chance to become even more interesting. Milwaukee enters 85-52, eight games clear of Chicago, and already leads the season series 4-2. Much more to be decided yet, however: These clubs will play seven of their next 10 games against each other. The Cubs have lost seven of 10, despite hitting .267/.340/.507 with 32 homers across their last 15 games. Their offense is indeed powerful enough to erase poor innings; their pitching has provided far too many, but such are the woes of an injured staff. Milwaukee, on the other hand, has won five consecutive series and seven of 10, batting .292/.358/.419 with a 19.3% strikeout rate. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cubs vs. Brewers prediction, preview
Kyle Harrison gives Milwaukee the best opportunity to silence Wrigley’s raucous MVP-borne crowds before the wind begins interfering with fly balls. He has posted a 2.79 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 127 strikeouts across 103⅓ innings this year. His underlying numbers support it, too: a 3.24 xERA, .224 xBA, .353 xSLG, and .280 xwOBA buoy his superficial statline. Season-long, Harrison has also struck out 30.0% of hitters while walking 6.4%, which gives Milwaukee a vast starting-pitcher advantage in count control tonight. His 1.83 ERA and 26 strikeouts across 19⅔ innings in August shape his readiness to win tonight. The four homers allowed during that stretch explain tonight’s unease, what with the weather and the Cubs’ boppers. Harrison’s 38.5% ground-ball rate leaves nearly 62% of contact airborne. Wrigley projects for 87 degrees with 11-to-12 mph wind blowing toward center. Could be trouble.
Chicago has already seen Harrison twice, and it hasn’t been any fun for them. He owns a 1.50 ERA with 20 strikeouts in those starts, including seven scoreless innings at Wrigley back in May. Harrison allowed two hits and struck out 11 that afternoon. Pete Crow-Armstrong has mutated enough since then to make the third meeting feel like a third act’s duel. Pending tonight, he’ll have finished August with 14 homers after going 8-for-14 with five against Cincinnati. Crow-Armstrong now carries a .283/.377/.577 line, 38 homers, 32 steals, 160 wRC+, and 9.3 fWAR. His .999 OPS and 177 wRC+ against lefties makes him dangerous even against Harrison. He has slugged .600 against four-seamers and .708 against sliders. Harrison throws his four-seamer and slurve nearly 90% of the time.
Crow-Armstrong remains one hitter, though, inside a matchup where Milwaukee’s advantages lay elsewhere. Harrison’s four-seamer has allowed a .292 xwOBA, while the slurve sits at .222. After a slow start to the season, Alex Bregman owns an .804 OPS against lefties, and a patient 15.6% strikeout rate, although his recent contact remains bereft of too many sweet spots and barrels. Chicago has scored an MLB-best 472 runs since moving Crow-Armstrong to leadoff May 23. That production has come with a 120 wRC+ and relentless pull-side power individually. Collectively, it’s generated the sort of lineup continuity that turns over like tables at New York’s hottest rigatoni & vodka sauce spot. Harrison’s job is simply denying the big inning before Crow-Armstrong gets up for his second, third ABs. Whether he can or not is the crucible.
Brewers vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Trade deadline acquisition Clay Holmes enters with sparkling second-half results, but a shaky underlying profile. In his four starts since returning from a fractured fibula, he’s commanded a a 1.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Holmes, however, struck out only 10 across those 23 innings while walking seven. His season ERA sits at 2.26, yet his xERA is 3.96 with a .256 xBA, a .369 xSLGa, and a .308 xwOBA. Holmes is straightforward: He throws his 93.3 mph sinker 50.9% of the time. That pitch has allowed a .225 average alongside a .307 xBA, .452 xSLG, .369 xwOBA, and 45.0% hard-hit rate on the season.
But the Brewers are scorching. William Contreras is hitting .415 over his last 10 games. Christian Yelich is hitting .371, and Milwaukee’s microscopic 19.3% strikeout rate should keep Holmes working inside crowded innings. The rivalry should make contact even louder, and the hotter hitters belong to the visitors.
The weather gives the over obvious smash appeal, although Milwaukee owns the sturdier route as a side when you project the full nine innings. Its bullpen has a 1.69 ERA across 21⅓ innings over the last week; Chicago’s group sits at a monstrous 7.47. Milwaukee’s 81 relief pitches Sunday all belonged to Grant Anderson and Bryse Wilson, leaving Trevor Megill, DL Hall, and Aaron Ashby available. Megill owns a 2.24 ERA and 1.76 FIP, while Hall carries a 2.20 ERA. Chicago used four relievers Sunday and has worked Trent Thornton for 57 pitches since Wednesday. Harrison’s strikeout advantage doesn’t mix well for the Cubs with Holmes’ expected regression, and Milwaukee’s rested leverage arms are fully deployable. I prefer that complete route over asking Harrison to participate in an immediate slugfest.
Best bet: Brewers moneyline (-101).
Projected score: Brewers 6, Cubs 4.
Best bet: Brewers (+100) at Cubs
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