The Philadelphia Phillies will face off with the Los Angeles Angels as part of today’s loaded MLB slate.
The Phillies have picked up victories in the opening two games of this series, winning 5-3 in the opener and 4-2 in 10 innings last night. Philadelphia will be looking to complete the sweep, while the Angels will be looking to snap a six-game losing streak tonight. Zack Wheeler and Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for their respective squads tonight in this series finale.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Phillies enter as -168 favorites and hold -108 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Angels hold +157 odds to win outright, with the run total set at 7.5.
Phillies at Angels prediction, preview
The Philadelphia Phillies enter with a 76-60 record on the season. They are currently five games behind the Atlanta Braves for the top spot in the National League East, and the Phillies hold a four-game lead over the final Wild Card spot. Philadelphia enters this matchup on a three-game winning streak and has won 12 of its past 14. On the season overall, the Phillies have gone 56-80 to the run line, and the run total is 62-66-8 to the over/under.
Zack Wheeler will be on the mound for the Phillies today, marking his 23rd of the season. The three-time All-Star enters with a 10-5 record, a 3.40 ERA, a 1.086 WHIP, 19 home runs allowed and 148 strikeouts tallied across 124.1 innings pitched. Wheeler has hit a rough patch of late, allowing a season-worst eight earned runs in his previous start and posting a 7.18 ERA across his past seven outings. He has faced off against this Angels lineup in 55 at-bats in his career, allowing 13 hits, four home runs and recording 16 strikeouts in these opportunities.
Looking at the production at the plate, the Phillies are slashing a collective .243/.313/.401 with a .715 OPS at the plate. They rank 17th in the league in hits, 13th in total runs, 11th in home runs and 15th in strikeouts tallied. Trea Turner leads the team with 131 hits on the season, along with 17 home runs and 51 RBIs. Brandon Marsh adds 127 hits, while Bryce Harper contributes 126 hits, with 44 combined home runs and 133 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber leads all of baseball with 40 home runs, while Alec Bohm, Luis Arraez and Bryson Stott are also playing key roles.
The Los Angeles Angels have slipped to 52-84 on the season, which slots them in last place in the American League West and is tied for the worst record in the MLB. They enter this matchup having lost six consecutive games. On the season, the Angels have gone 68-68 to the run line, and the run total is 55-79-2 to the over/under.
Yusei Kikuchi will get the start for Los Angeles, marking his ninth of the season. The 35-year-old enters with an 0-4 record, a 6.25 ERA, a 1.583 WHIP, with five home runs allowed and 37 strikeouts tallied across 36.0 innings pitched. Kikuchi has allowed four or more earned runs in five of his eight starts this season. The Phillies have faced off with the left-hander in 48 career at-bats, notching 12 hits and recording 14 strikeouts across these opportunities.
Looking at the offensive production, the Angels are posting collective slash lines of .234/.309/.372 with a .680 OPS. Los Angeles ranks 26th in hits, 26th in runs, 27th in home runs and has tallied the third-most strikeouts in the league. Zach Neto leads the team with 124 hits, a team-high 23 home runs and 65 RBIs. Mike Trout adds 20 home runs and 47 RBIs, while Oswald Peraza, Vaughn Grissom and Nolan Schanuel also play notable roles.
Phillies at Angels pick, best bet
There is a notable gap in talent between these two teams, and they hold much different outlooks for the remainder of the season. Philadelphia has made up some major ground after a discouraging start to the season, and it holds a favorable postseason outlook with the divisional race not entirely out of reach. In contrast, the Angels are limping to the finish line with their measure of success being not finishing with the worst record in baseball.
My lean is toward the Phillies taking care of business and completing the sweep. They have covered the 1.5-run line in back-to-back games and expect this to continue tonight. However, my best bet is for the game total to go over the 7.5 run line.
While Zack Wheeler has largely been a model of consistency on the mound, he is struggling as of late. Control has been a factor, and his failure to locate his off-speed pitches has made him overly reliant on his fastball and predictable on the mound. The 36-year-old had his season end due to thoracic outlet surgery last year, and the sample size is now large enough that there is real reason for concern in his recent performances. Wheeler has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts, and the 15 walks he has tallied across this stretch are more than he has allowed over a four-game stretch in over a decade.
This is especially concerning considering the Angels have largely hit Wheeler well in his career. The Phillies ace has allowed 13 hits, four home runs and 10 RBIs in 55 at-bats against this expected lineup, and he has faced them in much better form than is currently the case. Los Angeles has some flaws at the plate, but it has scored two or more earned runs in six straight starts and lit the Astros up for 18 runs just over a week ago.
On the other side of the matchup, Yusei Kikuchi has allowed runs at a consistent rate all season while facing lineups with much less talent than the Phillies possess. Philadelphia has found its stride at the plate as of late, averaging 5.9 runs per game across its past 14 and scoring as many as 12 runs a game across this stretch. The run total has gone over in nine of its last 13.
Expect both pitchers to have some struggles in this matchup and for the 7.5 run line to be too low based on the context of this matchup. While Wheeler will hope this is a get-right spot for him against a poor opponent, his control struggles are too much to overlook, and he has not fared well in this matchup. Count on both sides pulling their weight at the plate and for 7.5 to be a comfortable line to clear.
Best bet: Game Total Over 7.5 (-114)
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