We’ve got a seven-game slate for Monday’s MLB action.
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $150K Extra Inning [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers vs. Athletics ($8,800) — deGrom got lit up for eight earned runs in 3.2 innings last start, good for -10.4 FPTS. I knew that could be a tricky start, since the White Sox have tons of power and can score runs. I still went with deGrom, though, because the White Sox also strikeout a ton. What I overlooked was that deGrom has struggled on the road this season, posting a 4.19 FIP compared to 2.25 at home while the K-BB% is 10.7% lower. deGrom is back at home for this one and faces an Athletics team that is seventh in strikeouts, dead-last in ISO and 29th in wRC+ on the road. I expect deGrom to bounce back in a big way and could be lower-owned due to recency bias.
Value
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks ($7,200) — I kind of hate this spot for Nola but he looks like the best cheap option on the slate. Over the last six starts, Nola has been good, putting up double-digit FPTS in all with two over 20 and a high of 30.8 FPTS. He’s allowed at least two earned runs only three times with a high of three. The strikeout rate is 29.1% and the barrel rate is 6.9%. That said, the walk rate is 9.2%, hard hit rate is 46%, strand rate is 99.4% and the FIP is much higher than the ERA (4.47 vs. 2.6). He’s allowed a home run in all of those starts. Arizona is dead-last in strikeouts, 13th in ISO and 16th in wRC+ at home. I’m really talking myself out of this one. If possible, I’d probably make a Diamondbacks stack lineup because he’s either going to continue the productive ways or get shelled.
INFIELD
Stud
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks ($6,300) — Speaking of stacks, I like the Phillies lefties against Brandon Pfaadt, who has a 5.08 FIP and 10 K-BB% against lefties. The slash line allowed is .262/.308/.452 with 11 home runs. Schwarber bats leadoff and has an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph, launch angle of 21 degrees, barrel rate of 17.3% and a bat speed of 77.2 mph. Against right-handed pitching, 28 of the 40 home runs have been hit with a 131 wRC+ and .302 ISO.
Value
Amed Rosario, New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels ($2,700) — Rosario is filling the short side of the platoon at third base despite posting a 64 wRC+ and .168 ISO this season. In his career, though, Rosario has a 115 wRC+ and .166 ISO against left-handed pitching. He has been unlucky this season against lefties, as the BABIP is only .211. The average exit velocity is still a respectable 90.6 mph with an 11.2% barrel rate. Mitch Farris is allowing a .311/.365/.594 slash with seven home runs in 27 innings against righties. The FIP is 5.6.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks ($5,800) — Yup, stacking against Pfaadt. Harper is a long ways from MVP Harper, but he’s still hit 27 home runs with 84 runs, 77 RBI and seven stolen bases. The walk rate is 16.7%, strikeout rate is 20.7%, average exit velocity is 90.4 mph, barrel rate is 11.3% and the bat speed is 74.1 mph. Against right-handed pitching, 23 of the 27 home runs have been hit while the wRC+ is 175 with a .313 ISO.
Value
Cam Smith, Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox ($2,900) — Smith has a crazy fast bat speed of 77.7 mph while the average exit velocity is 89.2 mph with a barrel rate of 11.1%. Against left-handed pitching, the ISO is .215. The batting average is a concern because .206 is no bueno, but Anthony Kay may be the magic elixir, as he’s allowed a slash of .283/.374/.478 with 16 home runs to righties. The FIP is 5.78 with a paltry 5.6 K-BB%.
