After another outstanding weekend of Major League Baseball action, Sunday Night Baseball is back on NBC to close out the day with a fun matchup at Wrigley Field between the Cubs and the Reds. The two teams split the first two games of this three-game set, all in the afternoon, but they’ll be under the lights on Sunday. DraftKings is ready for the showcase matchup, featuring the Reds and Cubs in some large MLB DFS showdown contests.
The pitching matchup features two strong starting pitchers, but the first two games of the series have been very offense-heavy. Ace Chase Burns ($12,200) takes the ball for the Reds against lefty Shota Imanaga ($10,800). In a companion post, I highlighted my top player prop bets in Sunday Night Baseball’s matchup, including one prop bet from Imanaga. In this post, let’s break down this Reds at Cubs matchup from a DFS fantasy baseball perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $100K Sunday Night Slugfest [$25K to 1st] (CIN at CHC)
Reds at Cubs DFS Showdown Strategy
Captain Picks
Sal Stewart ($12,600 CP) – Even though the Cubs are favored, the Reds’ bats have a more favorable matchup and come at slightly lower salaries overall. Stewart is only the seventh-most expensive play on the board, but he has shown both his upside and impressive consistency over the last several weeks. The 22-year-old seemed to hit a bit of a wall earlier this summer, but has pushed through and adjusted to produce again on the other side.
Stewart started this series with a homer in each game, posting 23 and 19 FPTS. Over his last 23 games, he has exactly 100 plate appearances and has hit .312 with six homers, 18 RBI, and a .361 wOBA. Four of those homers have been over his last 10 games, when he has a 15.6% barrel rate and 43.8% hard-hit rate while producing 12.4 FPTS per contest.
All season long, Stewart has excelled against lefties, hitting .295 with .392 wOBA against southpaws. He also has a good history against Imanaga specifically, going 3-for-6 with a homer in their past meetings.
Shota Imanga ($16,200 CP) – Even though I like Stewart against him, Imanaga is my alternative Captain’s Pick selection since he brings good strikeout upside and has been very consistent since the All-Star break. He did have a shortened outing against the Mariners in his last start, lasting only two innings but needing 72 pitches to earn 5.7 FPTS. Before that, though, he had 20+ FPTS in five of his six starts coming out of the break.
The Reds have the highest K% in the MLB this season, and Imanaga earned 14.4 and 30.1 FPTS when he faced them earlier this season. In the favorable matchup, he has a good chance for a bounce-back outing at Wrigley, where he has averaged 17 FPTS per game in 15 starts this season.
UTIL Plays
Pete Crow-Armstrong ($10,200) – Crow-Armstrong posted a massive 53 FPTS on Saturday with three homers, six RBI and four runs scored. He has 15+ FPTS in six of his last 12 games and has an extremely high ceiling. He had been held under 7 FPTS in four straight games before Saturday’s breakthrough, and he’ll look to keep rolling even in a tough matchup against Burns.
Pedro Ramirez ($6,600) – Ramirez homered on Saturday and posted 18 FPTS and followed that with a pair of hits and 16 FPTS on Friday. He has 15+ FPTS in four of his last six games, and the 22-year-old switch-hitter is hitting .292 with a .347 wOBA in his 60 games in the majors, including .391 with a .507 wOBA over his last six games, averaging 14.3 FPTS per game.
Hector Rodriguez ($4,400) – The Reds also have a young hitter finding his stride in the majors in the 22-year-old lefty Hector Rodriguez. Over the last seven games, Rodriguez is 10-for-26 (.385) with a double, three homers, a .520 wOBA and an average of 13 FPTS per game over that short stretch. Rodriguez has been starting against lefties and righties and has proven to bring a high ceiling with 14+ FPTS in three of his last six games. With such an affordable salary, Rodriguez is a nice way to round out your roster in a UTIL spot and still have a high ceiling.
Fades
Chase Burns ($12.200) – Burns has been phenomenal this year, going 14-3 with a 2.77 ERA and 164 strikeouts in 139 2/3 innings. Burns is very expensive, though, and he only had 2.2 FPTS in his last start, which was on the road at San Francisco. Burns has produced 13 FPTS or fewer in four of his last eight starts and has been more hittable on the road and against lefties. This will be the first time he faces the Cubs this year, but since Chicago has so many lefties and a strong lineup overall, it seems like better options are available to build around rather than spending all the way up for Burns.
The Outcome
The winds will be blowing out at around 10 mph according to the forecast for Sunday night, and there is also a chance the game will need to start late if showers settle around the park. There’s a slight chance for a postponement, but if they play as expected, the Cubs will look to pick up where they left off after piling up 17 runs in Saturday’s win. The Reds will need a huge start from Burns, especially with their bullpen beat up. Since Burns hasn’t been at his best lately, Imanaga has a chance to outduel him and get the Cubs the series win on Sunday night.
Final Score: Chicago 8, Cincinnati 3
