This series has produced 40 runs, 52 hits, and 14 home runs through two games. Cincinnati scored nine unanswered runs Friday, then Chicago answered with 17 runs and six homers Saturday. The market finally moved to nine, yet the push protection remains valuable at that number. Both offenses are seeing the baseball well, and neither relief staff has enjoyed a quiet weekend. Wrigley should remain warm near first pitch, with a southerly breeze projected around 10 mph toward the outfield. Earlier storms are expected to clear. That combination keeps the scoring environment favorable without requiring another 17-run outburst from either side. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cubs vs. Reds prediction, preview
Chase Burns owns the strongest season in this matchup. He is 14-3 with a 2.77 ERA, 3.17 xERA, and 164 strikeouts across 139.2 innings. His 90.1 mph slider is vicious, producing a 51.7% whiff rate and .261 slugging percentage. Burns pairs it with a 97.6 mph four-seamer, and those pitches comprise 94.7% of his work. The limited third pitch becomes relevant against a deep lineup. Left-handed hitters have reached a .728 OPS against him, compared with .501 for righties. His August ERA has climbed to 4.33. San Francisco collected nine hits and five runs in 3.2 innings Monday.
Chicago can make that narrow arsenal labor. Pete Crow-Armstrong enters after three homers Saturday and now owns 12 in August. Michael Busch, Ian Happ, and Michael Conforto give the Cubs three more left-handed looks at Burns. Seiya Suzuki and Alex Bregman each homered Saturday, while Carson Kelly drove in four runs from the ninth spot. Chicago has scored 55 runs across six games despite taking one shutout during that stretch. The concern is paying for Saturday’s six-homer barrage. Burns can erase that fear quickly when his slider lands below the zone. Still, this lineup can elevate his fastball and force a fifth-inning decision.
Shota Imanaga carries his own strong season case. He owns a 3.78 ERA, 3.83 xERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 144 strikeouts against 34 walks. His splitter remains excellent, allowing a .243 expected wOBA with a 41.8% whiff rate. The trouble sits elsewhere. Hitters have slugged .456 against his four-seamer, .523 against his sweeper, and .511 against his sinker. Imanaga has allowed 30 home runs, five above his park-adjusted expectation. Six came across 17.2 August innings. Seattle chased him after two innings last Sunday, collecting five hits, two walks, and another homer.
Reds vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Cincinnati has already hit six homers in this series. Sal Stewart launched his 30th Saturday and now owns 104 RBIs during a remarkable rookie season. Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, Eugenio Suárez, and JJ Bleday can punish elevated fastballs from both sides. Imanaga has dominated this matchup historically, posting a 2.48 ERA in five starts. The current Reds have hit .172 with a 34.3% strikeout rate across 70 plate appearances against him. That is the strongest argument for the under. Recent evidence points elsewhere. Cincinnati has scored 15 runs this weekend, and Imanaga has completed six innings once in his past four starts.
The relief workload breaks the tie. These bullpens have covered 18 innings in two days. Cincinnati used six relievers Friday, then needed six more innings Saturday. Sam Moll worked both games, Julian Garcia threw 38 pitches, and Tony Santillan needed 32. Chicago used Trent Thornton, Aaron Civale, and Daniel Palencia Friday. Ryan Zeferjahn, Ryan Rolison, and Colin Rea handled four innings Saturday. Several leverage arms remain available, although clean middle innings are no longer guaranteed. Burns and Imanaga could control the first half. Their recent length, warm Wrigley air, and exhausted middle relief create enough scoring chances afterward. Nine can still push, and ten cashes.
Best bet: Over 9 (-120)
Projected score: Cubs 6, Reds 5
Best bet: Cubs vs. Reds o9.0 total runs (-120)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
