USC opens at the Coliseum after averaging 35.8 points and 471.6 yards during its 2025 campaign. Lincoln Riley returns nine offensive starters from a unit ranking eighth nationally in total offense. USC also owns six consecutive wins over San Jose State. The Trojans scored 56 during the teams’ latest meeting in 2023. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the USC Trojans and the San Jose State Spartans.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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USC vs. SJSU prediction, preview
Jayden Maiava produced 3,711 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and six rushing scores last season. His 91.2 QBR reflected excellent efficiency, although seven interceptions came during USC’s four losses. Those volatility concerns carry limited weight against this secondary. San José State must replace every major defensive-back contributor from last season.
The Spartans allowed 32.5 points and 403.2 yards per game during 2025. Their defense generated only 17 sacks and 14 takeaways across 12 games. Opponents also converted 23 of 29 fourth-down attempts. Riley should remain aggressive whenever USC crosses midfield, expanding both touchdown equity and possession efficiency.
King Miller rushed for 972 yards while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Waymond Jordan averaged 6.5 before injuries erased his final seven appearances. Their combination gives USC two explosive backs against a defense allowing 157.9 rushing yards per game. The offensive line returns 69 combined starts, despite Kilian O’Connor’s season-ending injury.
Receiver carries greater uncertainty after Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane entered the NFL. Tanook Hines supplies experience, while Trent Mosley and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt bring immediate explosiveness. Maiava should still find manageable windows against an entirely rebuilt secondary. San José State returns only three players who started six games last season.
The Spartans also committed 27 turnovers and averaged only 119.7 rushing yards during 2025. That profile could create short fields for USC’s revamped defense. Gary Patterson’s pressure packages should trouble Luke Weaver behind an inexperienced supporting cast. Repeated three-and-outs would preserve possessions despite USC eventually protecting a massive lead.
SJSU vs. USC pick, best bet
The noon kickoff brings temperatures around 90 degrees, magnifying USC’s considerable depth advantage. Riley’s recent opening-week mismatches produced 73, 48, 56, and 66 points. That sample averages 60.8 points, comfortably above this threshold. USC can reach 50 without requiring San Jose State to support the game total.
A reduced fourth-quarter tempo presents the clearest risk. However, USC’s young receivers need competitive repetitions, while Patterson needs live defensive evaluation. The Trojans can generate seven touchdowns through offensive efficiency, short fields, and special-teams opportunities. My projection clears the number despite allowing substantial clock drainage after halftime.
Best bet: USC team total over 49.5 (-115)
Projected score: USC 52, San Jose State 10
Best Bet: USC TT o49.5 total points (-115) vs. SJSU
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