In the second and final matchup of today’s two-game WNBA slate, the Toronto Tempo will face off with the Phoenix Mercury.
This is the third and final competition between these two teams this season. The two sides have split the pair of matchups to this point, with the Tempo producing a 98-90 win in the first meeting on May 19th. More recently, the Mercury defeated the Tempo 89-80 on June 27th.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Mercury enter as 9.5-point favorites and hold -395 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Tempo hold +310 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 173.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction and pick for this Tempo at Mercury matchup.
Tempo at Mercury Preview
The Toronto Tempo enter with an 11-28 record on the season, which slots them in 13th place in the WNBA standings. Toronto is looking to snap a three-game losing streak, and has lost 15 of their past 16. On the season overall, the Tempo have gone 21-18 against the spread, and the game total is 23-16 to the over/under.
Injuries have been a major factor in Toronto’s struggles this season, and this will remain the case tonight. Brittney Sykes dealt with a foot issue that has limited her to 17 games this season and will keep her out for this matchup. Sykes is responsible for 18.6 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.4 assists when she has been on the floor. Marina Mabrey is the only other player to exceed this, with averages of 20.8 points, 3.7 assists and 3.3 rebounds per game, but she will miss tonight with an adductor issue. Annesah Morrow is also set to miss tonight due to a left knee issue and also played a key role for the team with overall averages of 9.3 points and 6.6 rebounds per game.
Of the available bodies, Kiki Rice will headline the production and look to add to her averages of 12.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game. Nyara Sabally and Isabelle Harrison each contribute 12.3 points per game, and combine for 11.7 rebounds per contest. Laura Juskaite is the lone other player to average in double figures, while Kianna Williams and Kia Nurse also play key roles.
As a team, the Tempo are scoring 86.7 points per game, which ranks 10th in the WNBA. Toronto also ranks ninth in offensive rating, 11th in field-goal percentage and sixth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 93.6 points per game against the Tempo, ranking 15th in the WNBA. The Tempo also rank last in defensive rating, 13th in opponent field-goal percentage and ninth in opponent three-point percentage.
The Phoenix Mercury sit just one spot above the Tempo in the standings with a 13-26 record on the season. They enter this matchup having lost four consecutive games and have dropped seven of their past eight. On the season, the Mercury have gone 16-23 against the spread, and the game total is 20-19 to the over/under.
Kahleah Copper headlines the production for the Mercury, averaging 21.3 points and 3.6 rebounds per game. Copper is considered probable for tonight’s matchup with an ankle injury. The Mercury made a midseason splash to trade for Kelsey Plum, who is averaging 15.8 points and 2.8 assists across her five games played in Phoenix. Plum will miss tonight’s matchup with her continued leg issue. Marta Suarez is the lone other player on the injury report and is considered questionable as she remains in concussion protocol. Alyssa Thomas adds 14.5 points, 8.3 assists, and 7.7 rebounds, while DeWanna Bonner and Jovana Nogic also average in double figures. Lexi Held and Natasha Mack also play notable roles.
The Mercury are scoring 83.7 points per game this season, which ranks 11th in the WNBA. They also rank 12th in offensive rating, 10th in field-goal percentage and 11th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 87.8 points per game against Phoenix, which ranks ninth in the league. The Mercury also ranks 12th in defensive rating, 10th in opponent field-goal percentage and 14th in opponent three-point percentage.
Tempo at Mercury Pick, Best Bet
This is a battle at the bottom of the WNBA standings, with neither team in their desired position on the season. But there are still plenty of takeaways to be had from each side, and it counts all the same in the bet slips regardless of the losing records.
Both these teams are flawed, but the 9.5-point spread feels far too significant for this matchup. Toronto being without their two top scorers is a problem, but not one they are unfamiliar with. Even with the losing streak of note, the Tempo have continued competing at a high level and have covered the spread in six of their past eight games. In contrast, the Mercury are 1-7 against the spread across their last eight games.
Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas are the two most talented players on the floor, but they have not been able to elevate the surrounding roster to the expected team success. Phoenix’s defensive shortcomings have left the door open for teams to produce wins against them all season, as they rank ninth in opponents’ points per game, 12th in defensive rating, and allow more made three-pointers than any other team in the WNBA. The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against Eastern Conference opponents, and the road team has won and covered in five consecutive Mercury games.
Expect some messy basketball in which neither side can generate much separation in this game. Neither team was able to extend a lead by more than nine in the previous meeting between these two sides, and the largest lead of the first matchup was just eight. Count on this trend continuing and for the Tempo to keep this matchup competitive and cover the 9.5-point spread between these two struggling opponents.
