Two of the MLB’s best teams since the All-Star break are set to square off again in Tampa Bay tonight. The Rays are hosting the San Diego Padres for game two of this series after winning the first outing yesterday in a 9-4 blowout. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for today’s Padres vs. Rays game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Rays prediction, preview
Since the All-Star break back in July, these teams have two of the best records in baseball. The Padres are 24-15 over this span and have moved to 72-63 overall this year, pulling a negative run differential to +12 thanks to this run of form. The Rays have a 24-16 record over the same sample and are 80-54 on the campaign with a +52 differential of their own. By all accounts, this should be a great matchup between postseason-caliber clubs.
San Diego starts RHP Walker Buehler (8-6), who has a 4.63 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP across 26 games. He’s struck out 108 batters for a 20.1% K%, and his BB% sits at 9.1%. While he struggled early in the campaign and had a rough July, he’s been excellent over the last month with a 2.73 ERA over the course of 26.1 IP in five August starts.
For Tampa Bay, RHP Nick Martinez (13-4) is the starter today. He doesn’t strike many batters out – in fact, his 87 over 147.2 IP give him a third-percentile K% of 14.7% – but he has a nice 2.93 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and a top-tier BB% of 3.7%. He also limits exit velocity well, bringing an 85th-percentile hard-hit rate too.
Both of these offenses are high achievers. The Padres have scored the sixth-most runs since the break with an OPS of .771 that ranks fourth over the same span. They have an ISO of .164 with an 0.52 BB/K ratio thanks to a 9.9% BB% and a 19.0% K%, too. Against right-handed pitching overall this year, they slash .236/.317/.391 with a .709 OPS.
As for the Rays, they’re also quite good at the plate. They’ve scored the 10th-most runs over the season’s second half and are 11th in OPS at .726 in the same sample. An ISO of .145 is still on the low end, but a 17.6% K% is stellar even despite the walk rate plummeting to 6.8%. They also slash an impressive .265/.336/.417 with a .753 OPS against right-handed pitching on the year overall.
Padres vs. Rays pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rays as a -127 Moneyline favorite at home this afternoon, with the Padres in play as a +119 underdog at home. The total is set at eight combined runs.
This is a game in which the under makes a lot of sense to me. Yes, both of these offenses are pretty stellar, but the starting arms are both quite capable as well. As mentioned earlier, Buehler has been incredibly effective this month across his five starts and has a 2.89 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP since the break, allowing just 12 earned runs over 37.1 IP. Martinez is a little hot-and-cold with high variance, but he’s also allowed just 17 earned runs over 42.1 IP since the break himself. And over the same sample, both bullpens rank top 12 in ERA as well. All in all, the run total may come close to the line, but should stay under.
