Helping to close down the loaded slate of MLB action, the Philadelphia Phillies will face off with the Los Angeles Angels.
These two teams opened up with a thrilling matchup last night, with a pinch-hit grand slam by Edmundo Sosa in the ninth inning paving the way to a 5-3 win by the Phillies. Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for Philadelphia tonight for the second matchup of the series, facing off with Ryan Johnson and the Angels.
Looking at the odds for the Saturday night matchup, the Phillies enter as -229 favorites and hold -137 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Angels hold +212 odds to win outright, with the run total set at eight.
Phillies at Angels prediction, preview
The Philadelphia Phillies enter with a 75-60 record on the season. They are currently five games behind the Atlanta Braves for the top spot in the National League East, and the Phillies hold a three-game lead over the final Wild Card spot. Philadelphia enters this matchup coming off back-to-back wins and has won 11 of its past 13. On the season overall, the Phillies have gone 56-79 to the run line, and the run total is 62-65-8 to the over/under.
Cristopher Sanchez will get the start for the Phillies, marking his 28th of the season. The All-Star Game starter enters with a 16-4 record, a 2.62 ERA, a 1.224 WHIP, 14 home runs allowed and 194 strikeouts tallied across 168.1 innings pitched. Sanchez has gotten himself into a bit more trouble as of late, with four earned runs in his past start and a 3.96 ERA across his past 13 outings. The two-time All-Star has faced off with this Angels team in 16 at-bats in his career, allowing three hits and recording six strikeouts across these opportunities.
Looking at the production at the plate, the Phillies are slashing a collective .243/.313/.403 with a .715 OPS at the plate. They rank 18th in the league in hits, 12th in total runs, 11th in home runs and 15th in strikeouts tallied. Trea Turner leads the team with 129 hits on the season, along with 17 home runs and 49 RBIs. Brandon Marsh and Bryce Harper add 126 hits of their own, with 44 combined home runs and 132 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber leads all of baseball with 40 home runs, while Alec Bohm, Luis Arraez and Bryson Stott are also playing key roles.
The Los Angeles Angels have slipped to 52-83 on the season, which slots them in last place in the American League West and is tied for the worst record in the MLB. They enter this matchup having lost five consecutive games. On the season, the Angels have gone 67-68 to the run line, and the run total is 55-78-2 to the over/under.
Ryan Johnson will take the ball for the Angels tonight, marking his 14th start and 17th appearance of the season. The 23-year-old enters with a 3-7 record, a 5.75 ERA, a 1.426 WHIP, 16 home runs allowed and 50 strikeouts tallied across 67.1 innings pitched. Johnson is coming off his most encouraging start of the season, as he threw seven scoreless innings against the Texas Rangers while allowing just one hit. Luis Arraez is the only member of the Phillies to have faced the right-hander and is 2-for-3 in these opportunities.
Looking at the offensive production, the Angels are posting collective slash lines of .235/.309/.373 with a .682 OPS. Los Angeles ranks 26th in hits, 26th in runs, 27th in home runs and has tallied the third-most strikeouts in the league. Zach Neto leads the team with 123 hits, a team-high 22 home runs and 64 RBIs. Mike Trout adds 20 home runs and 47 RBIs, while Oswald Peraza, Vaughn Grissom and Nolan Schanuel also play notable roles.
Phillies at Angels pick, best bet
It has been an up-and-down season for the Phillies and a largely lifeless year for the Angels. Los Angeles is limping to the finish line, while Philadelphia has made up plenty of ground and now holds a promising postseason outlook. My lean is toward the Phillies winning tonight and covering the 1.5-run line. But I am backing the game total to go over the eight-run total as my best bet.
It was an encouraging start from Johnson last game, with this being his best performance of the year. But the larger sample size of what he has shown this season leaves plenty of room for production for this Phillies lineup. Johnson has allowed five or more earned runs in five starts and has allowed 10 home runs across his past nine outings. This is a Phillies team that has found its offensive gear and is averaging six runs per game across its past 13 games played and has scored as many as 12 runs in a game across this stretch. It has done a much better job as of late at avoiding chasing pitches and driving in runs over the base path rather than just being reliant on home run production. The game total has gone over in nine of the Phillies’ past 12 games.
On the other side of this matchup, Sanchez has shown some vulnerabilities as of late. He has thrown 552.0 total innings since the start of 2024, and the workload may be beginning to take a toll on his arm. Sanchez leads the MLB with 168 hits allowed and has had to pitch out of jams at a consistent rate. He gave up four earned runs on nine hits in his previous start against the Cardinals and has a 4.03 ERA across his past nine games. While the Angels’ lineup is far from the most intimidating in the league, they put up 18 runs against the Astros just over a week ago and have scored three or more runs in six of their past eight. Both bullpens have also struggled all season, with the Phillies posting a collective 4.27 ERA and the Angels at 4.29.
Expect the Phillies to lead the scoring charge but for the eight-run total to be too low for the context of the matchup. Count on the bats to come alive in this game and for a few crooked numbers to push the total well beyond the eight-run total.
Best bet: Game Total Over 8 (-109)
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