College football has finally arrived! We saw an early season primetime matchup between TCU and North Carolina last season, and we get the same this season. This time, the Tar Heels and Horned Frogs will do battle on a neutral field in Ireland, kicking the season off with the first contest of Week 0. Let’s breakdown betting the game below.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. TCU Horned Frogs – 12pm ET (Dublin, Ireland)
We saw this matchup in primetime of Week 1 last season, when Bill Belichick made his head coaching debut for the Tar Heels in a home game on Monday Night Football of Labor Day Weekend. Four minutes into the game we were losing our minds. North Carolina made an efficient drive downfield on its opening possession, taking a quick 7-0 lead. The Belichick experiment was going to work.
Then TCU finished the game on a 48-7 run, leaving Chapel Hill with a dominant victory. In fact, the 48 points weren’t just a season-high in scoring for the Frogs, it was the most points a Belichick defense had ever given up — at any level of football. Plenty has changed for both sides. Most notably, TCU lost starting QB, Josh Hoover, to Indiana. The Frogs also lose a starting member of the secondary and a starting wide receiver due to a fight they got into with each other.
Jaden Craig, a three-year starter at QB for Harvard, transfers in and just needs to be solid at the helm. TCU did a terrific job retaining the rest of its talent from a 9-4 season, and projects to be very strong on both the offensive and defensive lines. I expect the Horned Frogs to dominate the trenches.
We can’t say the same for UNC, who lost plenty of talent to the portal, but struggled to replace it. Belichick was supposed to be a draw to get players to Carolina and develop them into NFL prospects. The Tar Heels did not have a player selected in the 2026 NFL Draft, and transfers took notice.
Outside of the talent, UNC has also had a swarm of negative headlines in the offseason. Aside from the distraction of Jordon Hudson, GM Mike Lombardi is on administrative leave, and DC Steve Belichick is on medical leave. Those are likely stressful issues for Belichick to deal with, and also leave more work on his plate.
Maybe TCU’s offense isn’t quite as explosive out of the gates without Hoover, but I see this game playing out pretty similar to last season in terms of the Frogs being able to dominate. I gave out TCU -6.5 on the DraftKings Network Daily Bets podcast almost a month ago. I’d still be comfortable laying north of a touchdown if you didn’t play it yet, but there are also other ways to play the game.
Backing the Frogs on the double result (lead at halftime and win the game) is a viable play to avoid laying the points. I’ve also used TCU as an anchor in some moneyline parlays. The two I’ll give out tie into Week 1 games. I like Georgia Tech to have a ton of success running the ball against a weak Colorado team on Thursday night. I also like pairing TCU with Auburn the following Saturday, who faces a spiraling Baylor program.
CFB Pick: TCU -6.5 (-110)
CFB Pick: TCU/Georgia Tech ML Parlay (-120)
CFB Pick: TCU/Auburn ML Parlay (-130)
