College football is finally back, with a slew of intriguing Week 0 games to get the 2026 season started. That includes Saturday’s showdown in Tallahassee between New Mexico State and Florida State. The Aggies are looking to make a statement following a disappointing 4-8 campaign last season. Ditto for the Seminoles, a big time program angling to contend in a wide-open ACC conference. Which of these two programs will start their season with a win tonight?
The Seminoles are listed as 31.5-point favorites over the Aggies, with the total set at O/U 53.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Week 0 matchup.
New Mexico State vs. Florida State prediction, preview
Any time a Conference USA team travels to a Power 4 school, it’s a difficult task. That’s only exacerbated by the fact that New Mexico State was straight up bad last season. As previously mentioned, the squad only managed to win four games. To boot, NMST finished with a dismal 2-6 conference record. There’s room for improvement on both ends of the ball for the Aggies. The team averaged the second-fewest yards per game (327.9) and gave up the fifth-most yards per game (401.8) in their conference.
With that being said, there’s some reason for optimism in Las Cruces. Incoming transfer Trey Hedden could be something; he threw for over 3,000 yards last season with Furman. Tyler ‘TK’ King is a difference-maker, and he should see double-digit targets tonight. During an injury-shortened 2025 campaign, the wide receiver recorded 41 catches for 588 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 14.3 yards per reception; that ability to extend plays could give the Aggies a boost in the passing game.
On the flip side, running the ball was a massive weakness last season for New Mexico State. The school gained just 2.6 yards per rush, easily the worst mark in all of college football. For added context, the next-closest CUSA team was Middle Tennessee State with 3.5 yards per rush. Last season, Florida State’s defensive line held opponents to 3.7 yards per rush, 27th-best in the nation.
Speaking of the Seminoles, it’s been an offseason of change in Tallahassee. Nowhere is that more apparent than at quarterback, where Ashton Daniels will take the reigns of this offense. The Auburn transfer, no stranger to the ACC due to his time at Stanford, isn’t the most prolific passer. However, he’s a true dual-threat. Over the past two seasons, Daniels has recorded 40+ rush yards in 11 of his last 15 games. That kind of speed under center could throw this Aggies front seven out of whack. New Mexico State surrendered 165.0 rushing yards per game last season, sixth-most in Conference USA.
Best Bet: Florida State -31.5 (-112)
This is a battle between polar opposites, at least on offense. New Mexico State would love nothing more than to sling the ball downfield. That strategy might work against most of their opponents this season, but a road trip against an upper-level ACC program? It feels like wishful thinking. Not to mention, controlling time of possession is essential when attempting to pull off an upset. The Aggies, even if everything goes according to plan, will be running a fast-paced, pass-first offense.
On the other side, Daniels and the Seminoles will prioritize pounding the rock. While some breakaway plays on offense can’t be ruled out, there may not be a need on Saturday. Dominating the clock, alongside a few timely turnovers, could be all Florida State needs to pull away in this one. Expect FSU to start its season off on the right foot at raucous Doak Campbell Stadium.
