Major League Baseball has a jam-packed Saturday schedule for the final weekend of August. All 30 teams are on the scoreboard, and a pair of the divisional series include doubleheaders this Saturday, giving baseball fans a total of 17 MLB contests to enjoy. With so many storylines and matchups to consider, many strong options emerge when hunting for home run props. There could be a few sprinkles in places but no major rain delay threat, and there are also a few places where the weather sets up well for home runs. Taking a look at the matchups, current form and weather forecasts, my top home run props for Saturday are from Sal Stewart, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Lawrence Butler.
It should be a great Saturday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Sal Stewart | Reds | Stewart is a great value with 29 HR this season coming into this matchup against Kevin Gausman on Saturday afternoon. Stewart has hit 21 of his 29 HR against righties, 15 of them on the road, and six in August. |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Braves | Acuna is 3-for-5 with a HR in his career vs. Ryan Feltner, who has an 8.91 ERA and 8 HR against him in 7 G since the All-Star break. Acuna smashed the ball Friday after getting a day off and will look to get back in the home run column Saturday afternoon. |
| Lawrence Butler | Athletics | Butler started slowly but his adjustments are paying off. He has hit safely in 14 of his last 16 games with five homers, a .461 wOBA, a 50% hard-hit rate and an 11.9% barrel rate. Of his 12 HR this season, 8 have been vs. RHP and 11 at home. Taking on Shane Baz puts him in a great value spot at homer-happy Sutter Health Park. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Sal Stewart to Hit a Home Run (+480)
The Reds are at Wrigley Field for a Saturday afternoon matchup, and the weather forecast calls for warm temperatures with the wind blowing out. Both sides have some favorable home run props as a result of the environment, but I love the value in playing Stewart at almost +500.
It has been a great first full year in the majors for Stewart, and the 22-year-old righty is up to 29 homers. He’ll go for number 30 against Kevin Gausman, who has allowed 18 homers in 27 starts overall this year, and three homers in his four games since joining the Cubs at the Trade Deadline. He gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings to the White Sox in his only home start for Chicago. Righties and lefties have the same number of home runs against Gausman this year, but righties have better averages since they have about 75 fewer at-bats.
Stewart has hit 21 of his 29 homers against righties and 15 of them on the road. In August, he’s hitting .294 with six homers after going yard to start the series on Friday afternoon when the Reds piled up four homers to win a close game, 10-8.
Stewart has been a great source of power all season and is a great value in what should be an excellent home run environment on Saturday afternoon.
Ronald Acuna Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+422)
Acuna has had a down year overall this season, but he looked much better on Friday and may be finding his groove after getting a day off on Thursday to clear his head. He gets a great matchup at home on Saturday afternoon against Ryan Feltner, which could set him up to deliver on these home run props at over +400.
On the season, Acuna is hitting just .235 with 13 homers this year, but in August, he’s hit five of those home runs and has a 46.7% hard-hit rate, which is a trend in the right direction.
After Thursday’s rest day, Acuna went 3-for-3 in the first game of this series against the Rockies on Friday, with two hard-hit balls and an average exit velocity of 104.6 mph on his three batted balls in play. He hit five homers early this month, with his most recent coming two weeks ago against the Diamondbacks.
Acuna is 3-for-5 with a home run in his past meetings with Rockies’ starter Ryan Feltner, who has gone 5-8 with a 6.08 ERA and allowed 19 homers in 20 starts this season. Righties like Acuna have 10 of those 19 homers with an 11.4% barrel rate. Feltner has allowed seven runs in each of his last two starts and has a 8.91 ERA since the All-Star break.
If Acuna can find his stride coming down the stretch, the Braves will be an even more serious contender in the National League, and he looked to be ready to take a step in that direction on Friday with his great contact metrics.
Lawrence Butler to Hit a Home Run (+545)
To round out Saturday’s home run props, let’s look at one of the best home run environments in baseball as the Athletics host the Orioles at Sutter Health Park. The forecast is for temperatures in the mid-70s with winds blowing out at eight miles per hour, setting up what should be a very favorable environment for home runs.
While Butler’s season-long numbers are still a little down overall, the 26-year-old lefty has started to crush the ball lately while stepping into a larger role after long-term injuries to Shea Langeliers (knee), Nick Kurtz (thumb), Tyler Soderstrom (hip) and Jacob Wilson (shoulder).
Butler has hit safely in 14 of his last 16 games with a .345 batting average, .461 wOBA, 50% hard-hit rate and 11.9% barrel rate. He has five homers during that span, including this home run on Thursday.
On Saturday, Butler and the A’s will take on righty Shane Baz. Butler has eight of his 12 homers this year against righties and 11 of his 12 homers at home, so he’ll be on the strong side of both those splits. Baz has allowed seven homers in his 13 road starts, going 1-8 with a 4.25 road ERA. Lefties like Butler have hit .280 with seven of the 11 homers he has allowed this year. On the road, Baz has allowed lefties to post a 42.9% hard-hit rate and a 7.3% barrel rate.
With the splits and momentum in his favor, Butler is another great place to get value in Saturday’s home run props. This game overall is a great chance to close out the night with some fireworks at Sutter Health Park, so be sure to check out the offensive options on both sides of this matchup if you’re looking for home run props or other batter props for Saturday night.
