Last season, Leeds United was one of two teams to break the curse of newly-promoted teams going straight back down to the Championship, and this season, the Whites enter with expectations of a top-10 finish. Leeds got its season off to a good start, finding a late winner against Nottingham Forest.
The Whites will hope to make it two wins from two in their home opener against Brentford, which was one of the most impressive teams in its opener, picking up a 3-0 result against Tottenham Hotspur. Kickoff is scheduled for 9 a.m. ET (2 p.m. local) on Sunday.
Leeds is a +160 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to take all three points, and the Bees are +170. There are +245 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down this clash of early surprises and provide my favorite bet.
Leeds United vs. Brentford Best Bet:
- Brentford Moneyline (+170): It’s one thing to win in Matchweek 1, and it’s another to utterly humiliate an opponent like Brentford did against Tottenham Hotspur. Sure, Spurs are coming off of a near-relegation, but they entered the season with good vibes, and the Bees could’ve easily won by a more lopsided scoreline than 3-0. Their squad is simply better on the margins than Leeds’.
Leeds United vs. Brentford prediction, pick
Much had been made late in the summer about Tottenham’s moves, as it had the highest net spend of any Premier League side this summer, but Brentford silenced Spurs quickly, going 3-0 up in the 49th minute and missing an opportunity to go 4-0 up when Igor Thiago clanked his penalty off the left upright. The Bees continued to have chance after chance after that, but failed to hand Tottenham an even more convincing scoreline. Meanwhile, the Whites’ win was tighter, as it took a wonderful free kick in the 88th minute to end what had been a spectacular back-and-forth affair, but three points is three points, and Leeds’ nail-biting finish means just as much in the table as Brentford’s annihilation. Both also advanced through the first round of the Carabao Cup, with the Whites edging out the Foresters again (this time 2-0) and the Bees throttling Championship side Birmingham City 6-1.
Leeds United has brought in only four players during the summer transfer window so far, but three are notable names. Tarik Muharemović starred for Bosnia and Herzegovina at the World Cup, goalkeeper James Trafford is thought to be the long-term answer for the English national team, and Harry Wilson led Fulham with 10 Premier League goals in 2025/26. Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin had 14 goals last season after making the move from Everton. Overall, the Whites scored the 11th-most goals in the Premier League last season from the 11th-most shots on target, although they managed to produce the third-fewest in the opening match and put only three of their 11 shots on target while completing passes in the final third at by far the lowest rate. However, Leeds played much better defensively than it did last season, when it allowed the fifth-most goals and the seventh-most shots on target; only five other teams allowed fewer expected goals in their opening match than the Whites, only two allowed fewer shots on target than their two, and only one recorded more interceptions. By pressing voraciously and playing aggressively in the passing lanes, Leeds didn’t even give Trafford much to do, but he saved the two shots he was asked to, and Anton Stach eventually broke through via a set piece.
The Bees had the Premier League’s second-top scorer last season, as Thiago smashed home 22 goals, including a league-high eight penalties. Additionally, Brentford made a €48 million splash for Mamadou Sangaré, who mostly played as a defensive midfielder last season for Lens but has some experience as an attacking midfielder for his native Mali, and he registered an assist in both the opener and the Carabao Cup match. Thanks to Sangaré’s dynamism, the Bees’ attack, which was already the seventh-best in the league last season, should get better, although producing 3.87 expected goals again like they did against Spurs might be an unrealistic expectation. Plus, Brentford made three major additions in the back, with center-back Jannik Schuster and left-back El Hadji Malick Diouf joining Sangaré. The Bees were brilliant against Tottenham, allowing just 0.57 expected goals and forcing Spurs to attempt shots in the box at the fourth-lowest rate. They also had the most interceptions and second-most recoveries while winning aerial duels at the second-highest rate. Coaihmín Kelleher made all four of the saves he had to, ranking fifth in goals prevented. While Brentford could’ve played more cleanly, it defended set pieces well, and its press resulted in the third-most high turnovers ending in a shot.
It’s easy to overreact to one week of action, but given all the narratives about Spurs as a potential Champions League dark horse team, the Bees’ thorough annihilation was impressive, and they haven’t lost anyone important while adding two of the most notable rising African talents in Sangaré (the most expensive Malian player ever) and Diouf (the most expensive Senegalese defender ever). Both teams like to press and are active in the passing lanes, but Brentford is more willing to sit back than Leeds, and it’s more aggressive moving forward when it does get possession. Despite his missed penalty against Tottenham, I also like Thiago as a finisher more than Calvert-Lewin, and being clinical will be key in a matchup between two teams with compact defenses and solid goalkeepers.
