Who doesn’t love a doubleheader? The best rivalry in the MLB continues with another game at Yankee Stadium this evening when the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox. The Bronx Bombers took game one of the series last night 1-0 before the Sox rallied back with a win in the first half of the doubleheader earlier today. Now, first pitch for part two is set for 7:15 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Red Sox vs. Yankees game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction, preview
This matchup could prove quite interesting in the race for second – or even first – in the AL East. The Red Sox are 74-61 this year and are the winningest team since the All-Star break, moving to 6.0 games shy of first in the division and just 2.0 out of second place. The Yankees are 76-58, so their lead on Boston will shrink even more with another loss here.
Boston is yet to announce its starting pitcher for game two, but Fangraph’s projections suggest it could be RHP Brayan Bello (5-6) who gets the nod. He has a 4.68 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over his 90.1 IP, mixing some bullpen appearances in with eight starts. He’s struck out just 68 hitters with a 17.2% K%, but his BB% is 7.6% and he forces ground balls at a 90th-percentile rate.
New York gets ace LHP Max Fried (4-4) back from injury today. He’s tossed 86.1 innings across 15 starts, amassing a 2.81 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP. His 79 strikeouts are good for a K% of just 23.8% with an 8.1% BB%, but obviously, the upside remains incredibly high for his arm. Thankfully, it’s been just over two weeks since his last appearance, so his layoff hasn’t been too long.
The lineups have certainly trended in different directions over the season’s second half, though. The Red Sox have scored the second-most runs of any club over this span and are second in wRC+ with a .790 OPS that also ranks second. Their .179 ISO is third best and the plate approach is excellent with a low 19.7% K% and a 9.5% BB%. Plus, they shell lefties this season, slashing .259/.337/.433 with a .770 OPS in the split overall.
The Yankees can’t say the same. They’re just 28th in runs scored over the second half and are ranked similarly in wRC+ and OPS, the latter of which is just .653. A .211 average over this sample is the worst in baseball, as is a 26.8% K%, and a .152 ISO has dropped considerably compared to the first half of the year before the break. They do slash .226/.309/.404 against right-handers for a .713 OPS on the campaign.
Red Sox vs. Yankees pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Yankees as a -135 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, with the Red Sox in play as a +126 underdog on the road. The total is set at 7.5 combined runs.
Fried’s return does provide a massive boost for a New York group in need of a jolt, but there are other factors at play here. The lineup has been pretty bad overall since the All-Star break, and while they scored eight, seven, and nine runs in three straight outings, they followed it up with two combined runs over their three more recent games out of the last six. The Yankees’ variance is fairly extreme at the moment, while Boston’s lineup has been firing on all cylinders and has as high a ceiling as anyone else in the MLB. There may be some more depleted bullpens after playing a game earlier in the day, while the lineups may change up a little more than expected. However, that gives us a perfect chance to take the underdog – and better club – with the Red Sox on the Moneyline.
