North Dakota State begins its FBS era inside the Fargodome following a 12-1 final FCS season. Tim Polasek owns a 26-3 record across two seasons, including the 2024 national championship. Jacksonville State went 9-5 and reached its second consecutive Conference USA championship game. This matchup represents an immediate physical test for both programs. Below are my favorite player props for today’s college football game between the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and the Stanford Cardinal.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Memphis vs. UNLV player props
Dallan Hayden Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Dallan Hayden brings a 4.5-yard career rushing average after stops at Ohio State and Colorado. He reached at least 4.7 yards per carry during three of his four seasons. Memphis now places him atop a backfield supported by an experienced offensive line. That combination makes 60 yards a modest requirement.
UNLV allowed 177.4 rushing yards per game and 5.22 yards per carry last season. The Rebels ranked 130th nationally in opponent rushing efficiency and 127th in rushing EPA. They also surrendered 24 rushing touchdowns. Memphis should attack that weakness before exposing its unsettled quarterback situation.
Charles Huff inherits Carde Smith, Skyler Grant, Koby Keenum, Parker Mitchell, and Aaron Karas across the offensive line. That group provides experience at every position. Memphis ranked 31st nationally in rushing yards per game last season. Huff’s physical approach should preserve that identity.
Marcus Stokes and Air Noland competed throughout camp without receiving an early public announcement. Quarterback uncertainty usually increases early-down rushing volume during an opener. Hayden can clear this line with 13 carries at his career efficiency. A projected 15-to-17 attempts provides suitable margin.
UNLV’s offense creates the largest concern. Jackson Arnold, Alex Orji, and Jai’Den Thomas could build an early lead, forcing Memphis toward heavier passing volume. However, the spread remains around one possession. Hayden should remain involved through at least three quarters and can contribute on draw concepts.
The indoor environment removes weather volatility and supports clean blocking execution. Hayden also carries greater explosiveness than this threshold requires. One successful second-level run could eliminate much of the burden. I project 16 carries, 74 yards, and several red-zone opportunities.
Best bet: Dallan Hayden over 59.5 rushing yards (-110)
Taeshaun Lyons Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Taeshaun Lyons caught 16 passes for 241 yards and three touchdowns during 2025. He averaged 17.2 receiving yards and 1.1 catches per game. This line requires more than triple his established average. The market therefore prices a dramatic role expansion before UNLV has demonstrated its new distribution.
Lyons exceeded 40 yards only once last season. That performance included a 72-yard touchdown against Hawaii, which created nearly 30% of his yearly production. His other notable scores covered 39 yards and 25 yards. The profile depends heavily upon low-frequency explosive plays.
Jackson Arnold starts after producing 1,309 passing yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions for Auburn. He exceeded 200 passing yards only three times. Arnold also recorded 112 carries and eight rushing touchdowns. His mobility removes potential targets whenever protection breaks or coverage eliminates the first read.
Alex Orji should receive specialized packages, creating additional passing-volume uncertainty. Jai’Den Thomas also returns after rushing for 1,036 yards and catching 39 passes. He ranked second on UNLV in receptions. Those touches compete directly with Lyons’ intermediate opportunities.
Memphis struggled defensively against the pass last season, which supplies the strongest over argument. However, poor coverage alone cannot guarantee target volume. Amorion Walker and DeAngelo Irvin also command snaps in a rebuilt receiving rotation. Lyons probably needs one explosive catch to threaten 53 yards.
UNLV should lean upon Thomas, Arnold’s legs, and selective deep shots. That construction supports strong team efficiency without concentrating five or six targets upon Lyons. I project three targets, two receptions, and 34 yards. The under remains playable while the threshold stays above 50.
Best bet: Taeshaun Lyons under 52.5 receiving yards (-115)
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