BvP. It’s maybe the most polarizing stat in the world of daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting.
While it would seem obvious that a batter’s history with a specific pitcher would be incredibly important and useful information, BvP numbers laugh in the face of sample size. They not only make us draw conclusions from an amount of at-bats that could take place over the course of two or three games, but remember, those games could have happened a half decade ago.
That said, I’d want to know if someone has a couple home runs of a starter that’s pitching tonight. Who wouldn’t?
In this space, I’ll attempt to toe the line between BvP love and hate. Let’s look at some matchups and see if history really is going to mean success on tonight’s slate.
BvP Matchups Today
| Batter | Pitcher | Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | Tanner Bibee (CLE) | .588/.632/1.176 – 1.808 OPS |
| David Fry (CLE) | Michael Wacha (KC) | .444/.444/.889 – 1.333 OPS |
| JJ Bleday (CIN) | David Peterson (CHC) | .500/.500/.750 – 1.250 OPS |
| Luis Arraez (PHI) | Reid Detmers (LAA) | .571/.667/.571 – 1.238 OPS |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | Tanner Bibee (CLE) | .375/.438/.750 – 1.233 OPS |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | David Peterson (CHC) | .500/.538/.667 – 1.205 OPS |
| Dane Myers (CIN) | David Peterson (CHC) | .500/.556/.625 – 1.181 OPS |
| Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) | Hunter Brown (HOU) | .417/.417/.750 – 1.167 OPS |
| Gleyber Torres (DET) | Tarik Skubal (LAD) | .300/.500/.600 – .1.100 OPS |
| Cedric Mullins (TB) | Casey Mize (SD) | .300/.364/.700 – 1.064 OPS |
**Minimum seven at-bats**
BvP Matchup Analysis
Vinnie Pasquantino vs. Tanner Bibee | 1.808 OPS (17 ABs)
Pasquantino has come off the IL red-hot. After a home run on Thursday night, the first baseman is slashing .342/.432/.684 with a 207 wRC+ in the 44 plate appearances since his return. Now he’ll get to face a pitcher he has seen exceeding well throughout his career. It’s not just that Pasquantino has 10 hits in 17 at-bats against Bibee, a fellow AL Central lifer, it’s that five of the 10 hits have gone for extra bases. Obviously the sample size is small here, as it is with all BvP matchups, but Bibee’s overall numbers from 2026 don’t give me a lot of hope that he’ll be able to buck this trend on Friday. The righty is surrendering 2.02 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs this season.
David Fry vs. Michael Wacha | 1.333 OPS (9 ABs)
This matchup will be a great litmus test for how much Stephen Vogt cares about BvP. In nine career plate appearances against Wacha, Fry has four hits, including a double and a home run. However, Fry has not started a game for the Guardians since being recalled from Triple-A last week on Wednesday. Will Vogt make sure to pencil the veteran in considering his past success? I have my doubts. Fry is a platoon bat at best, with just a 91 wRC+ against RHPs in his time at the MLB level. He is also 0-for-16 in his limited chances with Cleveland since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Wacha was busy during the All-Star break, as he was playing in the game. I’m giving the clear edge to the pitcher this time around.
Gleyber Torres vs. Tarik Skubal | 1.100 OPS (10 ABs)
Here’s a spot where we know for sure the data is old. Gleyber Torres doesn’t have an at-bat against Tarik Skubal since August of 2024 because, as of a month ago, these two had been teammates for the last two years. Heck, Torres’ home run off Skubal is from all the way back in 2023, just at the beginning of when the left-hander was becoming the dominant force we now know him as. I would be foolish to expect anyone to have a good performance against Skubal at full strength, and that’s without even factoring in the narrative of his return to Detroit. That said, Torres posted a .400 expected wOBA versus LHPs in 2025, and he’s followed that up with a .375 expected wOBA in 2026. Skubal isn’t your garden variety southpaw, but it’s still relevant.
