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Prediction, pick for Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas at UFC Shanghai

Prediction, pick for Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas at UFC Shanghai

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

It’s going down at 125 pounds on Saturday night, as Rei Tsuruya faces Kevin Borjas at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song in Shanghai, China.

Tsuruya (11–1, 2–1 UFC) rebounded from his first professional loss with a first-round submission win against Luis Gurule in May. Borjas (11–5, 2–4 UFC) is also coming off a win, taking a unanimous decision over Andre Lima in June. 

Tsuruya enters as an overwhelming -800 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Borjas is a +550 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 2.5 rounds.

Tsuruya vs. Borjas Preview

Rei Tsuruya

  • 11–1 (2–1)
  • 4–0 (T)KO
  • 5–0 SUB

Rei Tsuruya returns to flyweight after an emphatic first-round submission win over Luis Gurule at 135 pounds earlier this year. With the victory, the Road to UFC 2 flyweight tournament winner avenged his lone professional loss at the hands of current champion Joshua Van. 

The Japanese prospect, 24, is known for his elite wrestling base — bolstered by smothering top pressure and a lethal submission arsenal. However, his middling stand-up game raises concern against the hard-hitting Kevin Borjas. With porous striking defense (43 percent), Tsuruya likely heads into Saturday understanding that his path to victory is on the ground.

Kevin Borjas

  • 11–5 (2–4 UFC)
  • 8–2 (T)KO
  • 0–1 SUB

Kevin Borjas has battled for consistency since entering the Octagon, but he heads into Saturday night with momentum. Earlier this year, the Peruvian contender stole the “O” from previously undefeated prospect Andre Lima. 

“El Gallo Negro,” 28, is a battle-tested Octagon presence who throws absolute sledgehammers — a constant threat on the feet despite his tendency to overthrow and get caught. But while Borjas has posted a strong 73 percent takedown defense throughout his UFC tenure, he’ll likely have that mark tested by Rei Tsuruya, by far the toughest grappler he’s faced in the promotion.

Tsuruya vs. Borjas Pick, Best Bet

Kevin Borjas has showcased impressive defensive grappling inside the Octagon, but he’s never faced a wrestler quite like Rei Tsuruya. The Japanese prospect would be unwise to stand and trade bombs with the formidable knockout artist, and he’ll likely opt to enforce his dominant top pressure and dangerous submission game. With nine stoppage wins already under his belt, Tsuruya should go for double digits on Saturday night in Shanghai. 

Best Bet: Rei Tsuruya by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-145)

Cooper is a Brooklyn-based writer who joined DraftKings in 2025. A recent graduate of Jay-Z’s Roc Nation School of Sports at Long Island University, he served as sports editor of the campus paper and lead sideline reporter for the men’s basketball team.
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