Bill Belichick took over the North Carolina football program entering 2025, and as you’d image, expectations were sky high. Despite a very manageable schedule, the Tar Heels were a disaster, finishing the season with a 4-8 record. Can Belichick turn things around in 2026 with his job seemingly on the line? I’m not so sure.
North Carolina Tar Heels Win Total Pick
Belichick’s debut for UNC was fun for the first drive or so. The Tar Heels marched down the field to take a 7-0 lead on TCU in the primetime Monday Night Football game during Week 1. The Frogs outscored them 48-7 the rest of the way and got a dominant road victory in Chapel Hill. The 48 points allowed was the most points that a Bill Belichick defense has allowed — ever … at any level of football. Let that sink in.
The defense improved as the season went on, but the offense really struggled. While it was nice to see the defense get on the right path, UNC did not replace much talent that it lost. The idea was that the legendary coach would attract high-end talent and guide it towards the NFL. That hasn’t been the case, as several players hit the portal. Just seven starters return, and very little talent was brought in to replace what went out the door. Things are moving backwards.
Most major publications have UNC as a bottom-10 team out of all 68 Power Conference schools. Pick Six Previews ranks Carolina 66th (out of 68) in terms of player development among Power Conference schools. Hence, why it is failing to maintain talent.
Outside of the lack of talent, the schedule and the storylines surrounding this team are what could really make things ugly in 2026.
Carolina is a growing underdog to TCU in a Week 0 rematch — opening 6.5 and growing as high as 9.5 the week of the game — this time being played on a neutral field in Ireland. Starting with an international game can also lead to slow starts for teams, which is not good for a program that projects to be an underdog nine times on the season. Aside from TCU, the Tar Heels will be road dogs at Clemson, Pitt, Duke, and Virginia, and a home underdog to Notre Dame, Miami, Louisville and NC State.
There’s really only one sure-win on the schedule, and that comes against East Tennessee State after a bye, following the return from Ireland. UNC also projects to be favored at home against Syracuse and on the road to UConn — which is a tough spot, sandwiched between ACC games against Miami and Louisville.
Even if Belichick is able to keep his squad from slipping up as a favorite, the Tar Heels are going to have to pull multiple upsets to go over their win total. I don’t see that happening.
Belichick has been in the news for all the wrong reasons this offseason, seemingly completely straying from what he preached during his legendary run in New England. Jordon Hudson has become a household name for college football fans, but she’s not the only distraction in Chapel Hill. Mike Lombardi, the General Manager of the team, is under investigation and on a paid leave. Aside from the investigations going on that surround the program, Steve Belichick (Bill’s son and the defensive coordinator), is now on a medical leave with no further information. He will not coach in Week 0 in Ireland. While that’s unfortunate, and we certainly hope for the best, it does not sound good.
Bettors at DraftKings have been piling onto the UNDER 4.5 wins this offseason, with the juice on the move as the storyline continues to progress in a negative light. The Tar Heels have a 68% ticket count on the UNDER 4.5 wins, which makes up 82% of the handle at DK — as of the morning of August 29, just a few hours before they kickoff in Ireland.
Tie it all together, and the Tar Heels have an uphill battle all season. The schedule is daunting, there are distractions everywhere, the staff is thinning, and the talent is depleting. I gave out plays on UNC U4.5 wins (+110) and U5.5 wins (-190) in early August. I’m still advising U4.5 (-105) as of Friday, August 28.
I have a very difficult time seeing a 5-7 season for this program. A 3-9 record seems much more probable, and even pulling an upset to go 4-8 again would not be good enough.
Win Total Pick: UNC UNDER 4.5 Wins (+110)
Win Total Pick: UNC UNDER 5.5 Wins (-190)
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