Minnesota arrives 1-1 after scoring 16 points across eight quarters, while Denver stands 1-1 with a 40-40 differential. Those records obscure the personnel reality. Kevin O’Connell will rest Kyler Murray and most starters, while Sean Payton says Bo Nix probably sits. McCarthy’s ankle leaves Minnesota’s quarterback order unsettled; Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer should play. Denver owns cleaner distribution through Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger. Roster cuts arrive Sunday, converting every reserve snap into a direct employment audition. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s NFL preseason game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Denver Broncos.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Vikings vs. Broncos prediction, preview
Minnesota’s offense has generated 537 yards, 268.5 per game, and one touchdown through two exhibitions. The Vikings averaged 4.4 yards per play at New York, then allowed five sacks and nine quarterback hits against Baltimore. McCarthy has completed 14 of 24 passes for 162 yards, 6.8 per attempt, one touchdown, and zero interceptions. However, his ankle and Wednesday absence erase any reliable workload projection. Wentz went 9-of-11 for 92 yards last week; Brosmer finished 11-of-17 for 98 yards and an interception. That efficiency cannot survive if Vershon Lee, Michael Jurgens, Joe Huber, and Ryan Van Demark again lose interior leverage.
Denver’s usable quarterback baseline looks steadier, though its ceiling drops sharply without Nix. Stidham and Ehlinger have combined for 290 yards on 27-of-42 passing, producing 6.9 YPA and an 82.4 rating. They own one touchdown and one interception across those attempts. Stidham struggled against Green Bay, going 9-of-15 for 82 yards and gifting the Packers a late-half interception. Denver’s backs have managed 145 yards on 43 carries, only 3.4 per rush. That run rate creates long-yardage exposure against Minnesota’s pressure disguises, even with Brian Flores resting established rushers.
The game inside the game centers on Minnesota’s unresolved offensive line and Denver’s crowded backfield. Jurgens, Gavin Gerhardt, Lee, Huber, and Walter Rouse compete behind a settled Vikings starting interior. Denver must separate Tyler Badie, Jaleel McLaughlin, Cody Schrader, and rookie Jonah Coleman behind J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey. On Minnesota’s edge, Bo Richter, Tyler Batty, Chaz Chambliss, Kenny Dyson, and Cam’Ron Stewart chase special-teams value. Third-round safety Jakobe Thomas should debut, while James Pierre and Chuck Demmings fight for secondary position. Denver’s Sean Fresch Jr., Kolbe Katsis, and Cameron Ross can change the roster through return work.
Broncos vs. Vikings pick, best bet
Both score profiles point downward. Minnesota has allowed 11.5 points per game and only two touchdowns, while its offense averages eight points. Denver’s defense collapsed against Green Bay, allowing 33 points, 22 first downs, 299 yards, and 118 rushing yards. Yet that game also exposed Denver’s self-sabotage: 10 penalties, weak kick coverage, and poor backup-line sequencing. The Broncos have committed 18 penalties through two games. Warm, mostly cloudy conditions around 84 degrees remove weather-driven variance, although altitude still stresses Minnesota’s late-game rotation.
Denver deserves favoritism through quarterback clarity, but laying 3.5 asks a limited offense to clear a key number. The total offers greater insulation. The market implies roughly Denver 20.5, Minnesota 17; I make the Vikings’ team total closer to 13. Four combined preseason games have produced three totals below 37.5, including both Minnesota contests. Minnesota has produced one touchdown in eight quarters, while Denver loses Nix’s two scoring drives from last week. My revised threshold requires a four-point cushion on preseason totals; this projection supplies 4.5.
Best bet: Under 37.5 (-110), playable at 37 through -115.
Projected score: Broncos 20, Vikings 13.
