The UFC returns to Shanghai, China, on Saturday night, packing a Fight Night card headlined by a bantamweight clash between Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong.
Nurmagomedov enters as a heavy -625 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Song is a +455 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 4.5 Rounds.
Along with traditional sports betting and daily fantasy, you can now have more action than ever for UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song. Check out DraftKings UFC Pick6 for my favorite picks for Saturday’s UFC event.
Umar Nurmagomedov More Than 24:55 Fight Time
Former title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov (20–1, 8–1 UFC) is a formidable force inside the Octagon — though he doesn’t concern himself with hunting for stoppages. The Dagestani grappler prefers to blanket his opponents with his smothering ground game. His career finish rate sits under 50 percent, and he’s gone the distance in five straight bouts heading into Shanghai.
Nurmagomedov enters as a heavy favorite against China’s Song Yadong (23–9–1, 12–4–1 UFC), who has fought to four decisions in his last five trips to the cage. DraftKings Sportsbook has the fight total set at 4.5 rounds, with heavy -215 odds for the over. It seems nearly inevitable that Saturday’s main event goes all five rounds.
Denise Gomes More Than 1.5 Takedowns
On Saturday night, rising prospect Denise Gomes (12–3, 6–2 UFC) faces the toughest test of her career in former title challenger Yan Xiaonan (19–5, 9–4 UFC). Facing the latter — a prolific striker with vulnerability against elite grapplers — the Brazilian’s path to victory is on the ground.
Fortunately, Gomes’s grappling has steadily accelerated — both in skill and frequency — amid her climb up the 115-pound ladder. She has landed three takedowns in back-to-back bouts heading into Shanghai. Landing at least two more against Xiaonan seems more than feasible.
Kai Asakura Less Than 32.5 Significant Strikes
Kai Asakura (22–6, 1–2 UFC) is coming off his first UFC win, starching Cameron Smotherman inside two minutes in May. As exciting as his swift finish was, it continued the Japanese contender’s trend of having never surpassed 32.5 significant strikes in the Octagon. A product of his knockout power, poor striking accuracy (34 percent), and grappling susceptibility, Asakura has failed to amass more than 21 significant strikes in a single bout across three trips to the cage — let alone 32.5.
It seems improbable for him to buck that trend against China’s Aoriqileng (26–13, 4–5 UFC), a hard-hitting veteran who can take things to the ground when he needs to, and who also has a compromised chin. Whether due to another quick stoppage or another grappling battle, Asakura should have trouble reaching his lofty significant strikes total on Saturday night.
Alex Perez Less Than 1.5 Takedowns
This is an especially compelling pick because, in a way, we’ve already seen it happen. Earlier this year, flyweight Alex Perez (26–10, 8–6 UFC) fought to a no contest with Sumudaerji (19–7, 6–4 UFC) after absorbing a low blow in the second round.
Despite winning the opening frame on two of three scorecards, the American contender was completely stifled by the “Tibetan Eagle,” getting dropped and nearly stopped. In particular, Perez struggled to impose his ground game, getting stuffed on both of his takedown attempts. Running it back with Sumudaerji — who has an impressive 73 percent takedown defense inside the Octagon — it seems unlikely for Perez to implement the same grappling strategy, much less find success in doing so.
Levi Rodrigues Jr. More Than 0.5 Knockouts
Former K-1 kickboxing champion Liu Ce (3–1 MMA) remains largely unproven inside the cage, with just two fights under his belt since returning to the sport in October 2024. One of those bouts resulted in a stoppage defeat. While his striking is undeniable, Liu now faces a massive upgrade in competition in Brazil’s Levi Rodrigues Jr (5–1, 0–1 UFC).
Even in loss, “Baby Monster” showcased his wrecking-ball power in his Octagon debut against Felipe Franco earlier this year. The Dana White’s Contender Series graduate arrives in Shanghai with a 100 percent finish rate — all by knockout or TKO. And despite being an underdog, Rodrigues has a real chance to overwhelm the inexperienced Liu with his patented onslaught of forward pressure and record his first highlight-reel stoppage in the UFC.
Andre Lima More Than 37.5 Significant Strikes
Rising prospect Andre Lima (11–1, 4–1 UFC) should be hungry to bounce back from his first professional loss. Earlier this year, he dropped an uninspired unanimous decision against the beleaguered Kevin Borjas, who was just 1–4 inside the Octagon.
Even so, Lima finished the bout with 51 significant strikes. It was the third time over his last four trips to the cage that he eclipsed 37.5 significant strikes, highlighted by a 108-strike performance against Daniel Barez last year.
Lima is known for his high fight IQ and impressive kickboxing, though he’ll likely need to amplify his output to prove that he’s more than just a point fighter. Saturday night gives him a golden opportunity to reshape the narrative, as he faces the debuting Namsrai Batbayar (10–1, 0–0 UFC). As a heavy -265 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, Lima should step on the gas and land north of 37.5 significant strikes in Shanghai.
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Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of 2+ players and select whether or not you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
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Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you can not pick the same player twice, and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
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