College football has finally arrived! We have an eight-game slate for Week 0 on Saturday, with kickoff times ranging from 12pm ET to 10pm ET. Here’s the quick breakdown of my best bets and picks that I am on for our first college football card of the season. I have some other leans that I may add as kickoffs approach, so be sure to check back, as I’ll keep the article updated.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. TCU Horned Frogs – 12pm ET (Dublin, Ireland)
We saw this matchup in primetime of Week 1 last season, when Bill Belichick made his head coaching debut for the Tar Heels in a home game on Monday Night Football of Labor Day Weekend. Four minutes into the game we were losing our minds. North Carolina made an efficient drive downfield on its opening possession, taking a quick 7-0 lead. The Belichick experiment was going to work.
Then TCU finished the game on a 48-7 run, leaving Chapel Hill with a dominant victory. In fact, the 48 points weren’t just a season-high in scoring for the Frogs, it was the most points a Belichick defense had ever given up — at any level of football. Plenty has changed for both sides. Most notably, TCU lost starting QB, Josh Hoover, to Indiana. The Frogs also lose a starting member of the secondary and a starting wide receiver due to a fight they got into with each other.
Jaden Craig, a three-year starter at QB for Harvard, transfers in and just needs to be solid at the helm. TCU did a terrific job retaining the rest of its talent from a 9-4 season, and projects to be very strong on both the offensive and defensive lines. I expect the Horned Frogs to dominate the trenches.
We can’t say the same for UNC, who lost plenty of talent to the portal, but struggled to replace it. Belichick was supposed to be a draw to get players to Carolina and develop them into NFL prospects. The Tar Heels did not have a player selected in the 2026 NFL Draft, and transfers took notice.
Outside of the talent, UNC has also had a swarm of negative headlines in the offseason. Aside from the distraction of Jordon Hudson, GM Mike Lombardi is on administrative leave, and DC Steve Belichick is on medical leave. Those are likely stressful issues for Belichick to deal with, and also leave more work on his plate.
Maybe TCU’s offense isn’t quite as explosive out of the gates without Hoover, but I see this game playing out pretty similar to last season in terms of the Frogs being able to dominate. I gave out TCU -6.5 on the DraftKings Network Daily Bets podcast almost a month ago. I’d still be comfortable laying north of a touchdown if you didn’t play it yet, but there are also other ways to play the game.
Backing the Frogs on the double result (lead at halftime and win the game) is a viable play to avoid laying the points. I’ve also used TCU as an anchor in some moneyline parlays. The two I’ll give out tie into Week 1 games. I like Georgia Tech to have a ton of success running the ball against a weak Colorado team on Thursday night. I also like pairing TCU with Auburn the following Saturday, who faces a spiraling Baylor program.
CFB Pick: TCU -6.5 (-110)
CFB Pick: TCU/Georgia Tech ML Parlay (-120)
CFB Pick: TCU/Auburn ML Parlay (-130)
San Jose State Spartans at USC Trojans 3pm ET
New Mexico State Aggies at FSU Seminoles 7pm ET
USC and FSU are monster favorites over inferior competition in Week 0, laying roughly 70 points combined to their opponents. Recent history tells us that neither of these offenses will hold back in an early season matchup against Group of Six schools.
Lincoln Riley is notorious for putting up big numbers against non-power opponents, and that’s exactly what his Trojans did last season with Jayden Maiava at QB. USC played nine Big Ten Conference games last season, along with a matchup against Notre Dame. It averaged 30.6 points in those 10 games. However, the Trojans opened the season with games against Missouri State and Georgia Southern. USC scored 73 points in the opener and followed it up with 59 points the following week. Maiava returns to lead another explosive offense, and I expect the Trojans to keep pressing against the Spartans.
FSU is off consecutive disappointing seasons. That said, the recent letdowns put Mike Norvell in position to run up the score when he can. The Seminoles had one of the most shocking results of the year to open last season, beating Alabama in Week 1. Florida State played nine ACC opponents on top of ‘Bama, and averaged 25.3 points in those 10 games. Between the Crimson Tide and the start of ACC play, FSU matched up with East Texas A&M and Kent State. The Seminoles scored 77 and 66 points in those two games, respectively. After another season finishing under .500, I expect a message sent here against New Mexico, despite personally being down on FSU again on the season as a whole.
Even with backups likely entering these games late, I think we can count on both coaches to keep their foot on the gas. FSU has a team total of 42.5, while the Trojans are all the way up to 50.5. The OVER is the only way I could bet either of them. I bought each one down to a slightly more manageable number and parlayed the two together for plus-money.
CFB Pick: USC TT O44.5/FSU TT O37.5 (+110)
Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs. North Dakota State Bison 5:30pm ET
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles 6:30pm ET
We have two games on Saturday evening that feature FCS teams moving up to the FBS level. One I’m optimistic on … the other, not so much.
North Dakota State has been dominant on the FCS level for years, and was due to make this move. The Bison are a talented team that can absolutely compete against FBS teams, and the fan base is ready for it. I expect North Dakota State to have the best home field of any team playing in Week 0, fueled by a fan base that’s eager for the Bison to continue to grow this program. This spread opened with Jacksonville State +10, and now that it’s been bet down below a touchdown, I feel the value shows on the home team.
Sacramento State was a decent team on the FCS level, but wasn’t even expecting this move to happen so fast. The Hornets hired a new coach, and recruited as if they’d remain at the FCS level. Surprise! Now you’re in the MAC. I don’t see this team being prepared to make the jump. Phil Steele ranks Sacramento State as the worst FBS team in the country, and does not believe the roster is ready to compete. This is mostly simply a fade of the Hornets on the road, but Steele also ranked the Eagles as his seventh most-improved team entering this season. Eastern Michigan should be able to hold it down at home, creating a nice moneyline parlay on these two home favorites.
CFB Pick: North Dakota State/Eastern Michigan ML Parlay (-130)
Memphis Tigers at UNLV Rebels – 10pm ET
Dan Mullen is in his second season at UNLV, following an impressive 10-4 debut in which he took the Rebels to the Mountain West Title Game — a loss at Boise State. That team returns eight starters from last season, and while they are moving on to new quarterbacks, they have experience in the room.
Jackson Arnold and Alex Orji both have experience at major programs, with Arnold playing at Auburn and Oklahoma, and Orji at Michigan. Arnold will get the start, but both quarterbacks are expected to play.
Memphis has a ton of moving parts, with Charles Huff taking over at head coach with his third program in three years — from Marshall to Southern Miss to Memphis. While I like Huff, the Tigers have a whopping 75 new players this season. Many of them have followed Huff throughout his stops, and I’m not convinced the Sun Belt talent will be up to par right away.
I lean to UNLV as the side, particularly with the spread dropping a couple points in the week leading up to the game. But my stronger play is on the total. Sharp money has come in on the under for the game, which I feel is the correct side. Again, lots of new pieces in place for the Tigers, and UNLV rotating at QB could create issues getting into a rhythm.
Rather than play the total for the game, I’m looking towards a slow start in the first half. Arnold and Orji do not exactly light it up through the air, and are prone to run the ball. Look for the Rebels to chew some clock when they have the ball, and Memphis to have some growing pains.
I’ll back the 1H UNDER 28.5 in the nightcap in Vegas.
CFB Pick: Memphis/UNLV 1H UNDER 28.5 (-118)
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