The NFL Preseason is into its final week, meaning it’s time for one last tune-up before the real action kicks off in September. The schedule got started on Thursday, and Friday brings a loaded slate of nine games across the evening. At 7 p.m. ET, the Atlanta Falcons are in Miami for a date with the Dolphins.
Here’s a prediction and pick for Falcons vs. Dolphins in the NFL Preseason on Friday, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Falcons vs. Dolphins preview
The preseason really doesn’t mean all that much in the grand scheme of things, so it shouldn’t be used as a measuring stick for a team’s future performance. However, for the clubs themselves, there are reasons that these games do matter – especially with the final week of games serving as a final opportunity to evaluate talent, potentially deciding position battles and depth moves.
The range of outcomes for the Falcons this year is wide, to say the least. Head coach Kevin Stefanski is a two-time Coach of the Year winner and brings plenty of pedigree to this team, but the coordinators Tommy Rees and Jeff Ulbrich do bring something to be desired. There’s star-level talent on offense with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, but significant questions at quarterback and on defense persist. After going 1-1 with a 27-7 drubbing at the hands of the Denver Broncos before a 34-6 win over the Indianapolis Colts, the preseason has showed the variance.
Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start again under center for Atlanta tonight with Michael Penix Jr. ruled out due to injury recovery. The former Miami Dolphin has not been good this preseason, so he’s not even the name most fans want to see – instead, that’s UDFA quarterback Jack Strand, who went 12-for-17 with 212 yards and a touchdown last time out while showing some flashes. The Falcons are expected to send some other starters out too, though the workload should be fairly limited for the stars. One name lower down the depth chart to keep an eye on, though, is veteran wideout Chris Blair, who has two receptions for 37 yards with a catch of 20+ yards in each game so far.
For the Dolphins, the Jeff Hafley era hasn’t begun in encouraging fashion. This team is expected to be one of the worst in the NFL this year, so it’s not like the bar is set particularly high. However, they dropped the opener 20-7 to the Washington Commanders, then fell to the New York Giants 26-3. With just 226 yards of offense in the first and a meager 102 in the second, there are real worries about what this group may look like moving forward.
There hasn’t been specific word yet on whether starters will play for Miami tonight, but for this to be a close game, they’ll need to. They played the first preseason matchup but didn’t appear in the second. Quarterback Malik Willis went 4-for-5 for 43 yards in the opener and De’Von Achane rushed seven times for 39 yards, but the names on offense are much more of an unknown beyond them. Rookie wideout Caleb Douglas could see action here, as could Chris Bell, the fellow third-round pick who was recently cleared to return following a torn ACL. Developing chemistry with Willis will be key.
Falcons vs. Dolphins prediction, pick
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Falcons as a 3.5-point road favorite in this matchup with -177 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Dolphins are a +146 home underdog with the game total set at a 36.5 combined points.
To be clear, betting on NFL Preseason can prove very tricky. Established names don’t see much action, especially in the earlier weeks, and there’s much more variance in these games due to the roster shuffling and how deep of a player pool coaches draw from. Especially in the context of final roster cuts approaching in the coming days, that may ring even more true.
I do like the Falcons to cover at -3.5 not because they’ve looked great this preseason, but because the Dolphins have looked so bad. Having fewer than 400 total yards of offense through two games – even without starters playing in the second matchup – is pretty abysmal for any serious NFL team. Yes, preseason means weird things happen. Yes, Miami is in the test-your-talent phase of its rebuild’s early stages. Still, you’d like to see better play so far under the new coaching staff.
If you’re not taking Atlanta on the spread tonight, the under on the game total also looks nice. There’s some variance with the Falcons’ offense, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see a rougher performance here. If they and the Dolphins struggle to move the ball in lieu of first-teamers’ presence, this could be one of the ugliest games on the slate tonight.
