Just two years ago, the Washington Commanders were in the Divisional Round of the postseason and looking ahead to more postseason appearances with Jayden Daniels’ as franchise quarterback. Last year, such a dream was ravaged by injury, but now the team has hope of getting back into the playoff mix. Will it happen this season?
Here’s a look at the Commanders’ win total over/under for the 2026-27 NFL season with a top betting pick.
Washington Commanders 2026 win total, best bet
The Commanders went just 5-12 and won only two games at home amidst a miserable season in 2025-26. They were supposed to compete for the NFC East again, but injuries limited Jayden Daniels to just seven games and Terry McLaurin played only 10. With the two most important cogs of the offense out of the picture, it’s no wonder the team collapsed. Can they get back on track this season with a cleaner bill of health?
There’s no denying that Daniels is electric when healthy. In his rookie campaign, he threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns with another 891 yards and six scores on the ground. The pairing of he and McLaurin have proven capable of carrying an offense nearly on their own, displaying clear chemistry with one of the best deep-ball connections in the NFL. Now, the Commanders have added veteran wideout Stefon Diggs, who is another year older but comes off a campaign in which he caught 85 balls for 1,013 yards and four scores. Chig Okonkwo was a solid signing at tight end. The backfield includes second-year runner Jacory Croskey-Merritt and new addition Rachaad White, who fill clear roles in a tandem that should prove capable, but not incredible. The offensive line is a mess after losing Laremy Tunsil and Tyler Biadsz to injury, though, and it shows.
Reports out of training camp suggest that the offense hasn’t gelled as hoped for. Again, we’ve seen Daniels shoulder a heavy load as a floor-raising talent, but down two of the best linemen protecting him, his risk of injury increases significantly and the run game may not live up to its own potential. There are certainly reasons to be concerned, even with the incoming pass-catching weapons here.
Moreover, the offense may be the least of the worries in Washington. Last year’s defense ranked dead last in yards allowed, coughing up 384.0 per game to opposing offenses. They finished bottom five against both the run and the pass, and the 26.5 points per game allowed also ended up at sixth worst among all teams. Shoring up that side of the ball will be integral in getting the Commanders back on track, and even with the talent the team added this offseason, they’ll still have to perform under the lights.
Javon Kinlaw and Daron Payne are back on the defensive line, which added a new nose tackle in Tim Settle. The biggest addition by far is linebacker Sonny Styles, the Ohio State standout taken No. 7 overall who may earn a place among the league’s elite at his position sooner rather than later. Odafe Oweh and K’Lavon Chaisson are two free-agent adds who have produced in the past, and Nick Cross fills a need at safety. The front office hit this side of the ball hard, so the Commanders clearly recognized a weakness and sought to remedy it. Will it work, though?
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Commanders’ win total at 7.5, with the under favored at -115 odds and the over set at -105.
There’s talent on both sides of the ball, but outside of Daniels, this is a roster devoid of true superstars. McLaurin and Diggs aren’t getting younger, and the former has dealt with some injury concerns just as his quarterback has recently. The offensive line may not hold up and has the early makings of a very porous group, which further complicates matters when trying to get the offense rolling. Daniels can improvise outside of structure, but life gets much more difficult as the frequency of such improvisation increases – and if the run game struggles, it may neutralize much of the offensive upside as well.
Defensively, it’s hard to see a complete turnaround occurring in just one offseason. Styles could be an incredible player, and probably will be; he just can’t carry the whole unit himself. After a disastrous run last season, there’s significant improvement needed to get this group to even respectable levels. Dan Quinn is a coach who can help make that happen, but we need to see it to believe it.
The Commanders’ strength of schedule doesn’t appear too difficult at 17th based on opponents’ winning percentage from last season (0.502). That’s not bad, but it’s not great either. Consider as well that the Philadelphia Eagles are still atop the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys should be a real threat after adding even more defensive pieces this offseason, and that the New York Giants may be competitive with John Harbaugh as head coach. Winning just one or two divisional games is a realistic, but disappointing outcome for Washington.
The Commanders are one of the highest-variance teams in the NFL. Unfortunately for them, the under on 7.5 wins makes more sense than banking on upside they may not be able to display on a consistent basis.
NFL Pick: Commanders under 7.5 wins (-115)
